NCAAFFinalCarter-Finley Stadium

Syracuse Orange at NC State Wolfpack

Final · ACC Network

34–31

SyracuseNC State

Final

Syracuse Orange

5-5 · W1

298 PF · 260 PA

Final

NC State Wolfpack

4-6 · L2

291 PF · 282 PA

SYR 53%NCSU 47%

At lock: projected SYR 27.54–26.26 NCSU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 12:40 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3686685874

Winner called · off by 10

Most typical sim

SYR 28 – NCSU 27

Final

SYR 34 – NCSU 31

Winner: Syracuse (51%)
Spread: NCSU +3 covers (51% vs 43%, push 6%)push
Total: Over 53.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)10

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SYR vs NCSU

The model

How this number was built

SYR 27.54–26.26 NCSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NCSU -1.3 vs SYR +2.1 · pred margin -1.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +1.7 vs +0.2 · model NCSU 30.7–25.1 SYR
Home field
+3.0 pts to NCSU
Record
NCSU 4-6 · SYR 5-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SYR -3 / total 54.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
SYR	3	3	7	21	34
NCSU	0	7	21	3	31

How the points were scored

FGQ1 7:443–0
Tripp Woody 31 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 3:403–7
CJ Bailey 9 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
FGQ2 0:106–7
Tripp Woody 35 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 13:476–14
Chance Robinson 12 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
TDQ3 11:006–21
Davion Gause 2 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
TDQ3 7:2113–21
Tylik Hill 13 Yd Run (Tripp Woody Kick)
TDQ3 2:2113–28
Jayden Scott 32 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
TDQ4 12:0520–28
Calvin Russell III 3 Yd pass from Steve Angeli (Tripp Woody Kick)
FGQ4 6:5520–31
Kanoah Vinesett 21 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 5:1226–31
Tunmise Adeleye 18 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
TDQ4 0:4834–31
Justus Ross-Simmons 11 Yd pass from Steve Angeli (Steve Angeli Pass to Justus Ross-Simmons for Two-Point Conversion)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

SYR	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	QBR
Steve Angeli #9	27/42	272	6.5	2	41.9
Calvin Russell III #5	0/1	0	0.0	0	--
Team	27/43	272	6.3	2	--

Rushing

SYR	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Tylik Hill #20	15	60	4.0	1	13
Ahmad Miller #22	10	41	4.1	0	9
Calvin Russell III #5	2	24	12.0	0	15
Ju'Juan Johnson #4	1	8	8.0	0	8
Steve Angeli #9	4	7	1.8	0	11
Team	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
Team	33	138	4.2	1	15

Receiving

SYR	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Calvin Russell III #5	17	137	8.1	1	26
Umari Hatcher #2	4	81	20.3	0	53
Daunte Bacheyie #19	2	19	9.5	0	15
Justus Ross-Simmons #86	2	16	8.0	1	11
Cole Weaver #11	1	15	15.0	0	15
Ahmad Miller #22	1	4	4.0	0	4
Team	27	272	10.1	2	53

Fumbles

SYR	FUM	LOST	REC
Chris D'Appolonia #6	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

SYR	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
Rashard Perry #92	6	5	0	2	0	0	0
Chris Peal #12	6	4	0	0	1	0	0
Chris D'Appolonia #6	5	2	0	0	0	0	0
Davien Kerr #3	4	3	1	1	0	0	0
Tunmise Adeleye #30	4	3	0.5	1.5	0	0	1
Demetres Samuel Jr. #1	4	3	0	0	0	0	0
David Omopariola #18	4	2	0	0.5	0	0	0
Keyshawn Johnson #14	4	2	0	0	0	2	0
Nazir Ward #7	3	2	0	0	1	0	0
Braheem Long Jr. #0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
Nissi Ogbebor #11	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
Cornell Perry #19	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
Gary Bryant III #10	2	1	0	1	0	0	0
Antoine Deslauriers #5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Darnell Stokes Jr. #26	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Chase Geter #4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Kubala #49	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Trey Dudley #23	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nathan Nyandoro #15	1	0	0	0.5	0	0	0
Jartavius Flounoy #98	1	0	0.5	0.5	0	0	0
K Kordae Houston #90	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G Gemaus Sackie #33	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	61	35	2	7	2	3	1

Interceptions

SYR	INT	YDS	TD
Tunmise Adeleye #30	1	18	1
Team	1	18	1

Kick returns

SYR	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Matthew Outten #13	2	29	14.5	17
Davien Kerr #3	1	16	16.0	16
Team	3	45	15.0	17

Punt returns

SYR	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Demetres Samuel Jr. #1	2	12	6.0	6	0
Team	2	12	6.0	6	0

Kicking

SYR	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tripp Woody #47	2/2	100.0	35	2/2	8
Team	2/2	100.0	35	2/2	8

Punting

SYR	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Jimmy Gregg #41	6	251	41.8	0	1	45
Team	6	251	41.8	0	1	45

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SYR	NCSU
1st Downs	24	21
3rd down efficiency	8-17	4-11
4th down efficiency	1-1	1-1
Total Yards	410	413
Passing	272	211
Comp/Att	27/43	15/27
Yards per pass	6.3	7.8
Rushing	138	202
Rushing Attempts	33	36
Yards per rush	4.2	5.6
Penalties	8-85	5-55
Turnovers	0	2
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	1
Possession	29:49	30:11

Lean · SpreadNot a strong playPush

NCSU +3

-118 at lock53%

Model projected SYR 27.54 – 26.26 NCSU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Steve Angeli · SYR
27/42 C/ATT · 272 YDS
CJ Bailey · NCSU
15/27 C/ATT · 211 YDS
Tylik Hill · SYR
15 CAR · 60 YDS
Jayden Scott · NCSU
14 CAR · 127 YDS
Calvin Russell III · SYR
17 REC · 137 YDS
Davion Dozier · NCSU
1 REC · 69 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Syracuse vs NC State pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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