California Golden Bears at Virginia Cavaliers
Final · ACC Network
7–36
At lock: projected CAL 17.90–29.38 UVA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3244797475
- Winner: Virginia (77%)
- Spread: UVA -10 covers (52% vs 45%, push 3%)
- Total: Over 46.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)18
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CAL vs UVA
The model
How this number was built
CAL 17.90–29.38 UVA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUVA +4.0 vs CAL -7.1 · pred margin +12.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.3 vs -4.2 · model UVA 32.3–17.4 CAL
- Home field+3.0 pts to UVA
- RecordUVA 5-5 · CAL 3-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UVA -11.5 / total 46.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| UVA | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 36 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 9:320–6
Da'Shawn Martin 12 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Will Bettridge PAT blocked)
- FGQ2 8:070–9
Will Bettridge 30 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 2:000–16
Brandyn Hillman 100 Yd Interception Return (Will Bettridge Kick)
- TDQ2 0:147–16
Adam Mohammed 5 Yd Run (Towns McGough Kick)
- FGQ3 8:027–19
Will Bettridge 30 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 0:047–26
Kam Robinson 33 Yd Interception Return (Will Bettridge Kick)
- FGQ4 6:187–29
Will Bettridge 42 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 3:247–36
Xay Davis 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| CAL | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele #3 | 16/30 | 141 | 4.7 | 0 | 2 | 36.5 |
 Dominic Ingrassia #14 | 1/1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
 Jackson Brousseau #11 | 2/3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 28.1 |
 Mason Mini #85 | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | -- |
| Team | 19/35 | 159 | 4.5 | 0 | 3 | -- |
Rushing
| CAL | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Adam Mohammed #24 | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 1 | 11 |
Dominic Ingrassia #14 | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 17 |
 Chase Hendricks #7 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Carson Perry-Smith #21 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 3 |
 Ashten Emory #20 | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele #3 | 6 | -21 | -3.5 | 0 | 12 |
| Team | 25 | 42 | 1.7 | 1 | 17 |
Receiving
| CAL | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mark Hamper #15 | 6 | 66 | 11.0 | 0 | 19 |
Chase Hendricks #7 | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Taimane Purcell #22 | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 13 |
Carson Perry-Smith #21 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | 16 |
 Anthony League #25 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 6 |
Mason Mini #85 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
Adam Mohammed #24 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Tyree Sams #81 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 19 | 159 | 8.4 | 0 | 19 |
Defense
| CAL | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AJ Tuitele #9 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kingston Lopa #2 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kamar Mothudi #3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaiah Crosby #23 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Sidney #20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Legend Journey #56 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Solomon Williams #0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Khamani Hudson #25 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aaron Hampton #21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Odera Okaka #19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Tristan Jernigan #32 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nemyah Telona #59 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Hurst Jr. #16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Derek Wilkins #96 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jayden Wayne #10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jericho Johnson #44 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aiden Manutai #14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Williams #51 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tristan Dunn #22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ricky Fletcher #1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel Harris #7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 David Bird #50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jae'on Young #13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael-Anthony Okwura #97 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Quimari Shemwell #24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Taimane Purcell #22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 LeBron Williams #92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 78 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Kick returns
| CAL | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N Niles Davis #26 | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 28 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 28 | 0 |
Punt returns
| CAL | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyree Sams #81 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
Kicking
| CAL | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Towns McGough #33 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
Punting
| CAL | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Angus Davies #29 | 6 | 267 | 44.5 | 0 | 2 | 57 |
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele #3 | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 0 | 1 | 32 |
| Team | 7 | 299 | 42.7 | 0 | 3 | 57 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CAL | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 17 | 20 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-14 | 7-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Total Yards | 201 | 424 |
| Passing | 159 | 223 |
| Comp/Att | 19/35 | 21/33 |
| Yards per pass | 4.5 | 6.8 |
| Rushing | 42 | 201 |
| Rushing Attempts | 25 | 36 |
| Yards per rush | 1.7 | 5.6 |
| Penalties | 4-33 | 8-99 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 0 |
| Possession | 25:12 | 34:48 |
Model projected CAL 17.90 – 29.38 UVA at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.8%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · CAL
16/30 C/ATT · 141 YDSBeau Pribula · UVA
16/24 C/ATT · 146 YDSAdam Mohammed · CAL
13 CAR · 41 YDSMark Hamper · CAL
6 REC · 66 YDSDa'Shawn Martin · UVA
4 REC · 59 YDSAJ Tuitele · CAL
11 TOT · 4 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
California vs Virginia pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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