#2 Utah Utes at #22 Arizona Wildcats
Final · Fox
40–39
At lock: projected UTAH 28.87–26.19 ARIZ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 9:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1270779771
- Winner: Utah (57%)
- Spread: UTAH -2.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 54.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)24
Final from . Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UTAH vs ARIZ
The model
How this number was built
UTAH 28.87–26.19 ARIZ · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexARIZ +12.6 vs UTAH +18.6 · pred margin -2.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +10.5 vs +14.6 · model ARIZ 26.3–29.3 UTAH
- Home field+3.0 pts to ARIZ
- RecordARIZ 7-3 · UTAH 10-0
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UTAH -2.5 / total 56.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 0 | 17 | 7 | 16 | 40 |
| ARIZ | 7 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 39 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 9:450–7
Quincy Craig 1 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
- FGQ2 14:553–7
Dillon Curtis 53 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 9:483–14
Kedrick Reescano 5 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
- TDQ2 6:2710–14
Devon Dampier 14 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
- TDQ2 1:3417–14
Devon Dampier 18 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
- TDQ3 11:5317–21
Isaiah Mizell 6 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
- TDQ3 10:0724–21
Byrd Ficklin 4 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)
- TDQ3 3:2224–28
Giovanni Richardson 19 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
- FGQ4 14:1027–28
Dillon Curtis 39 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 11:4633–28
Daniel Bray 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- FGQ4 8:0933–31
Michael Salgado-Medina 47 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 3:1333–39
Isaiah Mizell 10 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Noah Fifita Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ4 2:3540–39
Creed Whittemore 70 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| UTAH | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Devon Dampier #4 | 13/25 | 204 | 8.2 | 2 | 1 | 72.7 |
| Team | 13/25 | 204 | 8.2 | 2 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| UTAH | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daniel Bray #5 | 18 | 197 | 10.9 | 1 | 62 |
Devon Dampier #4 | 14 | 100 | 7.1 | 2 | 31 |
 Wayshawn Parker #1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
Team | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 35 | 296 | 8.5 | 3 | 62 |
Receiving
| UTAH | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Creed Whittemore #2 | 5 | 92 | 18.4 | 1 | 70 |
 Braden Pegan #7 | 3 | 52 | 17.3 | 0 | 30 |
 Ricky Johnson #11 | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 0 | 35 |
Daniel Bray #5 | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | 16 |
 Byrd Ficklin #15 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 | 4 |
| Team | 13 | 204 | 15.7 | 2 | 70 |
Fumbles
| UTAH | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Devon Dampier #4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Mana Carvalho #8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Daniel Bray #5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Defense
| UTAH | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rabbit Evans #1 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Elijah Davis #9 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Trey Reynolds #10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ethan Day #8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Elijah Reed #11 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Johnathan Hall #7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cyrus Polu #0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Paul Fitzgerald #40 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jireh Moe #90 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jackson Bennee #23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Elijah Elliss #83 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nate Ritchie #6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kash Dillon #93 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lance Holtzclaw #15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 James Chenault Jr. #5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lucas Samsula #97 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dillon Curtis #17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Pupu Sepulona #45 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Semi Taulanga #99 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 68 | 34 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| UTAH | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Braden Pegan #7 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 30 | 0 |
Kick returns
| UTAH | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Daniel Bray #5 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 17 | 0 |
Cyrus Polu #0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 17 | 0 |
Punt returns
| UTAH | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mana Carvalho #8 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| UTAH | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dillon Curtis #17 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 53 | 4/4 | 10 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 53 | 4/4 | 10 |
Punting
| UTAH | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Orion Phillips #92 | 3 | 169 | 56.3 | 0 | 3 | 84 |
| Team | 3 | 169 | 56.3 | 0 | 3 | 84 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTAH | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 21 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-11 | 7-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 500 | 415 |
| Passing | 204 | 356 |
| Comp/Att | 13/25 | 27/43 |
| Yards per pass | 8.2 | 8.3 |
| Rushing | 296 | 59 |
| Rushing Attempts | 35 | 31 |
| Yards per rush | 8.5 | 1.9 |
| Penalties | 6-45 | 5-50 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 26:06 | 33:54 |
Model projected UTAH 28.87 – 26.19 ARIZ at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -3.0%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Devon Dampier · UTAH
13/25 C/ATT · 204 YDSNoah Fifita · ARIZ
27/43 C/ATT · 356 YDSDaniel Bray · UTAH
18 CAR · 197 YDSKedrick Reescano · ARIZ
9 CAR · 41 YDSCreed Whittemore · UTAH
5 REC · 92 YDSChris Hunter III · ARIZ
6 REC · 119 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Utah vs Arizona pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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