#8 Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers
Final · ESPN
34–20
At lock: projected TEX 23.11–21.95 MIZ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2366703721
- Winner: Texas (54%)
- Spread: TEX -2.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 42.5 (62%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TEX vs MIZ
The model
How this number was built
TEX 23.11–21.95 MIZ · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMIZ +12.9 vs TEX +23.9 · pred margin -3.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +8.1 vs +10.5 · model MIZ 23.4–23.9 TEX
- Home field+3.0 pts to MIZ
- RecordMIZ 6-3 · TEX 7-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward TEX -2.5 / total 44.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 7 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| MIZ | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 20 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 8:400–7
Brett Norfleet 2 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)
- TDQ1 6:107–7
Derrek Cooper 24 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)
- FGQ1 1:067–10
Blake Craig 22 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 1:5710–10
Gianni Spetic 27 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 11:5110–13
Blake Craig 48 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 5:4113–13
Gianni Spetic 34 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 4:5213–20
Naeshaun Montgomery 72 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)
- TDQ3 1:5220–20
Jermaine Bishop Jr. 25 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)
- TDQ4 5:0327–20
Raleek Brown 23 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)
- TDQ4 1:2534–20
Raleek Brown 8 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| TEX | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arch Manning #16 | 28/38 | 297 | 7.8 | 3 | 0 | 78.1 |
| Team | 28/38 | 297 | 7.8 | 3 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| TEX | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Raleek Brown #0 | 17 | 85 | 5.0 | 1 | 13 |
 Michael Terry III #11 | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 6 |
 Ryan Wingo #1 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Derrek Cooper #5 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 5 |
Team | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Arch Manning #16 | 6 | -29 | -4.8 | 0 | 14 |
| Team | 31 | 76 | 2.5 | 1 | 14 |
Receiving
| TEX | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Emmett Mosley V #3 | 5 | 85 | 17.0 | 0 | 31 |
 Jermaine Bishop Jr. #4 | 4 | 60 | 15.0 | 1 | 25 |
Ryan Wingo #1 | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 | 22 |
Raleek Brown #0 | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 1 | 23 |
Derrek Cooper #5 | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 1 | 24 |
 Michael Masunas #15 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 10 |
 Emaree Winston #85 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | 4 |
Michael Terry III #11 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 28 | 297 | 10.6 | 3 | 31 |
Fumbles
| TEX | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Niblett #21 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Emmett Mosley V #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Arch Manning #16 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Graceson Littleton #29 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Defense
| TEX | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Derek Williams Jr. #2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Justin Cryer #28 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Rasheem Biles #3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
 Bo Mascoe #5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lance Jackson #40 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Colton Vasek #92 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jelani McDonald #4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Graceson Littleton #29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ian Geffrard #95 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Maraad Watson #88 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Zina Umeozulu #19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kade Phillips #8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ryan Niblett #21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Warren Roberson #24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Alex January #97 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Samari Matthews #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Connor Robertson #62 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hero Kanu #93 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brad Spence #14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Justus Terry #15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ryan Wingo #1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 59 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Kick returns
| TEX | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Niblett #21 | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 28 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 28 | 0 |
Kicking
| TEX | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gianni Spetic #44 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 34 | 4/4 | 10 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 34 | 4/4 | 10 |
Punting
| TEX | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mac Chiumento #43 | 5 | 180 | 36.0 | 0 | 2 | 44 |
| Team | 5 | 180 | 36.0 | 0 | 2 | 44 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TEX | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 17 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-13 | 3-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Total Yards | 373 | 336 |
| Passing | 297 | 252 |
| Comp/Att | 28/38 | 23/44 |
| Yards per pass | 7.8 | 5.7 |
| Rushing | 76 | 84 |
| Rushing Attempts | 31 | 24 |
| Yards per rush | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| Penalties | 7-65 | 5-45 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 32:26 | 27:34 |
At lock TEX 23.11–21.95 MIZ · TEX by 1.2 pts vs MIZ +3 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissArch Manning · TEX
28/38 C/ATT · 297 YDSAustin Simmons · MIZ
23/43 C/ATT · 252 YDSRaleek Brown · TEX
17 CAR · 85 YDSJamal Roberts · MIZ
19 CAR · 66 YDSEmmett Mosley V · TEX
5 REC · 85 YDSNaeshaun Montgomery · MIZ
2 REC · 81 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Texas vs Missouri pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MIZ +3, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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