Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Arkansas Razorbacks
Final · SECN+
61–106Last shot · David Giddens misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UAPB 64.10–99.40 ARK
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2447992518
- Winner: Arkansas (100%)
- Spread: UAPB +40.5 covers (67%)
- Total: Under 163.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)10
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UAPB 64.10–99.40 ARK · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseARK +0.0 off · UAPB +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ARK
- Market priorBlended 86% toward ARK -42.5 / total 167.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAPB | 28 | 33 | 61 |
| ARK | 47 | 59 | 106 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:3555–93
Jeremy Nyakundi makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3556–93
Jeremy Nyakundi makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0856–95
Abdou Toure makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4859–95
Jeremy Nyakundi makes 25-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:3659–96
Abdou Toure makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3659–97
Abdou Toure makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2559–99
Abdou Toure makes driving layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:5959–101
JJ Andrews makes 4-foot dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3459–104
Ilia Frolov makes 24-foot three point jumper (Abdou Toure assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4561–104
David Giddens makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:2961–105
Amere Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2961–106
Amere Brown makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UAPB | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CJ Smith F · #5 | 26 | 9 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 C. Williamson F · #22 | 21 | 13 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
 J. Hamilton-Brown G | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Hayes G · #3 | 18 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Tatum G · #1 | 34 | 16 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 7-8 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
 J. Nyakundi F · #4 | 15 | 10 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 C. Dixon G · #11 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 K. Johnson G · #9 | 26 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 H. Pickett G · #23 | 27 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 D. Giddens G · #7 | 8 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 B. Johnson G · #0 | 10 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 D. Capriotti G · #6 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Williams F · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Hernandez G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Taylor G · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 61 | 21-54 | 6-21 | 13-19 | 27 | 10 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 28 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UAPB | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-54 | 35-64 |
| FG% | 39 | 55 |
| 3PT | 6-21 | 6-18 |
| 3P% | 29 | 33 |
| FT | 13-19 | 30-42 |
| FT% | 68 | 71 |
| REB | 27 | 43 |
| OR | 9 | 17 |
| DR | 18 | 26 |
| AST | 10 | 19 |
| STL | 6 | 16 |
| BLK | 1 | 7 |
| TO | 24 | 11 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 24 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 32 |
| FBPs | 6 | 45 |
| PIP | 30 | 54 |
| PF | 28 | 17 |
| LL | 2 | 45 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 1 | 98 |
At lock UAPB 64.10–99.40 ARK · ARK by 35.3 pts vs UAPB +40.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
MissCJ Smith · UAPB
26 MIN · 9 PTSM. Muurinen · ARK
18 MIN · 10 PTSJeremiah Wilkinson · ARK
STAT · 21 MIN · 23 PTS · 7-11 FG · 4-7 3PTJordan Smith Jr. · ARK
STAT · 28 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-11 FG · 6-10 FTJalen Tatum · UAPB
STAT · 34 MIN · 16 PTS · 4-11 FG · 1-4 3PTCreed Williamson · UAPB
STAT · 21 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-6 FG · 1-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
AR-Pine Bluff vs Arkansas pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UAPB +40.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day