UT Arlington Mavericks at Portland Pilots
Final
89–85Last shot · Hunter Adam misses 29-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UTA 74.15–76.91 PORT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2515397184
- Winner: Portland (59%)
- Spread: PORT -2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 150.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)22
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UTA 74.15–76.91 PORT · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defensePORT +39.6 off · UTA +31.6 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to PORT
- RecordPORT 1-1 · UTA 2-0
- Market priorBlended 71% toward PORT -2.5 / total 150.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 46 | 43 | 89 |
| PORT | 43 | 42 | 85 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4982–75
Jerimiyah Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tristan Hankins assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:5382–77
RJ Nance Jr. makes layup (Jaxon Olvera assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5782–80
Riley Parker makes 29-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2384–80
Teodor Simic makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1284–82
RJ Nance Jr. makes 14-foot step back jumpshot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4584–84
RJ Nance Jr. makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:4584–85
RJ Nance Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 1:2385–85
Mier Panoam makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2386–85
Mier Panoam makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5987–85
Niko Bundalo makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5988–85
Niko Bundalo makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0889–85
Noah Shelby makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UTA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N. Bundalo F · #11 | 18 | 18 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 M. Goodman F · #5 | 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 T. Hankins G · #4 | 38 | 0 | 0-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
 M. Panoam G · #3 | 38 | 19 | 7-11 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
 N. Shelby G · #2 | 29 | 9 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 T. Simic F · #15 | 25 | 24 | 9-17 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
 T. McDaniels F · #8 | 19 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
 T. Clark F · #0 | 13 | 12 | 4-4 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 J. Smith G · #7 | 11 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 S. Hadnot F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. McGlothin F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Montgomery G · #16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Parker G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Mikalauskas G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 89 | 31-62 | 11-25 | 16-25 | 30 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 28 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTA | PORT | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 31-62 | 29-55 |
| FG% | 50 | 53 |
| 3PT | 11-25 | 11-23 |
| 3P% | 44 | 48 |
| FT | 16-25 | 16-27 |
| FT% | 64 | 59 |
| REB | 30 | 31 |
| OR | 9 | 6 |
| DR | 21 | 25 |
| AST | 13 | 13 |
| STL | 9 | 4 |
| BLK | 1 | 3 |
| TO | 13 | 21 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 13 | 21 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 25 | 7 |
| FBPs | 10 | 10 |
| PIP | 40 | 22 |
| PF | 28 | 19 |
| LL | 14 | 1 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 94 | 2 |
At lock UTA 74.15–76.91 PORT · PORT by 2.8 pts vs PORT -2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissN. Bundalo · UTA
18 MIN · 18 PTSJ. O'Donnell · PORT
31 MIN · 12 PTSRJ Nance Jr. · PORT
STAT · 24 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-13 FG · 2-4 3PTTeodor Simic · UTA
STAT · 25 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-17 FG · 4-7 3PTMier Panoam · UTA
STAT · 38 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-11 FG · 1-4 3PTRiley Parker · PORT
STAT · 26 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-10 FG · 4-8 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UT Arlington vs Portland pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PORT -2.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day