Wright State Raiders at Toledo Rockets
Final · ESPN+
76–68Last shot · Will James Jr. makes layup
At lock: projected WRST 79.88–79.76 TOL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1916951113
- Winner: Toledo (50%)
- Spread: TOL +1.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 159.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
WRST 79.88–79.76 TOL · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTOL +6.9 off · WRST +15.5 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TOL
- RecordTOL 1-3 · WRST 3-0
- Market priorBlended 70% toward WRST -1.5 / total 157.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WRST | 36 | 40 | 76 |
| TOL | 31 | 37 | 68 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4669–57
Angel Montas Jr. makes 10-foot jumper (Sean Jones assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2669–59
Mynor Strong makes layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:1471–59
Noah Lewis makes 3-foot dunk (Dominic Pangonis assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0671–61
Mynor Strong makes 9-foot jumper (Austin Parks assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4673–61
Kellen Pickett makes layup (Noah Lewis assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:2473–63
Will James Jr. makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 2:2074–63
Ilija Milijasevic makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2075–63
Ilija Milijasevic makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2975–64
Chris Riddle makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4775–66
Jaylan Ouwinga makes 16-foot jumper (Sean Jones assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4576–66
Kellen Pickett makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0376–68
Will James Jr. makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| WRST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K K. Pickett F · #4 | 35 | 19 | 6-10 | 4-4 | 3-4 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 2 |
 I. Williams G · #15 | 22 | 9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 D. Pangonis G · #3 | 30 | 6 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 4-5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 A. Holden G · #20 | 20 | 5 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 C.J. O'Hara G · #10 | 32 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
N N. Lewis F · #5 | 27 | 16 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
 N. Djapa C · #23 | 5 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
T T. Hayes Jr. G · #0 | 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
I I. Milijaševic G · #6 | 20 | 15 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
S S. Johnson F · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
L L. Northrop G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
T T. Martin G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
P PJ Douglas G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Traylor G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 76 | 26-53 | 7-16 | 17-26 | 38 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 28 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WRST | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-53 | 27-66 |
| FG% | 49 | 41 |
| 3PT | 7-16 | 3-16 |
| 3P% | 44 | 19 |
| FT | 17-26 | 11-15 |
| FT% | 65 | 73 |
| REB | 38 | 36 |
| OR | 10 | 12 |
| DR | 28 | 24 |
| AST | 15 | 17 |
| STL | 6 | 8 |
| BLK | 9 | 5 |
| TO | 14 | 8 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 15 |
| FBPs | 15 | 9 |
| PIP | 36 | 30 |
| PF | 17 | 19 |
| LL | 14 | 9 |
| LC | 8 | 8 |
| LPCT | 61 | 34 |
At lock WRST 79.88–79.76 TOL · WRST by 0.1 pts vs TOL +1.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissK. Pickett · WRST
35 MIN · 19 PTSJ. Ouwinga · TOL
33 MIN · 12 PTSMynor Strong · TOL
STAT · 32 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-11 FG · 0-1 3PTNoah Lewis · WRST
STAT · 27 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-9 FG · 2-4 FTIlija Milijasevic · WRST
STAT · 20 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-7 FG · 3-5 3PTSean Jones · TOL
STAT · 34 MIN · 10 PTS · 3-10 FG · 2-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wright St vs Toledo pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TOL +1.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day