Northern Kentucky Norse at South Dakota Coyotes
Final · Summit League Network
102–94Last shot · Josiah Dotzler misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected NKU 81.38–79.76 SDAK
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2168762493
- Winner: N Kentucky (55%)
- Spread: SDAK +2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 160.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)34
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NKU 81.38–79.76 SDAK · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSDAK +29.0 off · NKU +22.6 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SDAK
- RecordSDAK 1-1 · NKU 2-0
- Market priorBlended 85% toward NKU -2.5 / total 163.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKU | 52 | 50 | 102 |
| SDAK | 47 | 47 | 94 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5795–88
Vince Buzelis makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5596–88
Eric Acker makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4596–89
Josiah Dotzler makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4596–90
Josiah Dotzler makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3896–92
Vince Buzelis makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:3197–92
Eric Acker makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3198–92
Eric Acker makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2398–94
Josiah Dotzler makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:2199–94
Noah Pagotto makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:21100–94
Noah Pagotto makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:09101–94
Willie Foster makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:09102–94
Willie Foster makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NKU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N. Pagotto F · #13 | 36 | 30 | 11-15 | 1-2 | 7-11 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 W. Shortt F · #7 | 14 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
 W. Foster G · #0 | 29 | 22 | 7-14 | 3-5 | 5-5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 E. Acker G · #2 | 36 | 22 | 7-13 | 2-3 | 6-9 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 B.J. Davis-Ray G · #9 | 35 | 15 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
 R. Tolliver F · #1 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 D. Rakotonanahary F · #10 | 26 | 10 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
 G. Jokubauskas G · #8 | 17 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 JJ Apathjang G · #22 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
P P. Mae F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Ruiz F · #17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Elliott G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Darbyshire G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 102 | 35-56 | 9-14 | 23-32 | 29 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NKU | SDAK | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 35-56 | 34-64 |
| FG% | 63 | 53 |
| 3PT | 9-14 | 9-25 |
| 3P% | 64 | 36 |
| FT | 23-32 | 17-21 |
| FT% | 72 | 81 |
| REB | 29 | 26 |
| OR | 8 | 10 |
| DR | 21 | 16 |
| AST | 18 | 12 |
| STL | 9 | 7 |
| BLK | 2 | 1 |
| TO | 14 | 15 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 14 | 15 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 21 | 16 |
| FBPs | 19 | 9 |
| PIP | 50 | 50 |
| PF | 24 | 26 |
| LL | 16 | 3 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 88 | 10 |
At lock NKU 81.38–79.76 SDAK · NKU by 1.6 pts vs SDAK +2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissN. Pagotto · NKU
36 MIN · 30 PTSS. van Bussel · SDAK
23 MIN · 13 PTSJahni Summers · SDAK
STAT · 31 MIN · 24 PTS · 7-12 FG · 4-9 3PTWillie Foster · NKU
STAT · 29 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-14 FG · 3-5 3PTEric Acker · NKU
STAT · 36 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-13 FG · 2-3 3PTVince Buzelis · SDAK
STAT · 32 MIN · 20 PTS · 8-12 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Kentucky vs South Dakota pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SDAK +2.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day