New Mexico State Aggies at Gonzaga Bulldogs
Final
68–109Last shot · Omarr Smith misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected NMSU 63.89–87.77 GONZ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 1:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 827807394
- Winner: Gonzaga (98%)
- Spread: NMSU +27.5 covers (63%)
- Total: Over 151.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NMSU 63.89–87.77 GONZ · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseGONZ +10.1 off · NMSU +7.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to GONZ
- RecordGONZ 2-0 · NMSU 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward GONZ -29.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 42 | 26 | 68 |
| GONZ | 47 | 62 | 109 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:0164–95
Mark Lavrenov makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5064–98
Javon Bennett makes 22-foot three point jumper (Juwan Ekanga assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:1964–101
Luca Foster makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nathan De Sousa assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:5365–101
Adrame Diongue makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5366–101
Adrame Diongue makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3666–102
Sam Funches makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1767–102
Jae'Coby Osborne makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1768–102
Jae'Coby Osborne makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5868–105
Juwan Ekanga makes 22-foot three point jumper (Javon Bennett assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:2168–106
Sam Funches makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2168–107
Sam Funches makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2668–109
Luca Foster makes 11-foot jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NMSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Lavrenov F · #32 | 35 | 19 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 9-10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
 L. Levillain F · #24 | 10 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Osborne F · #4 | 34 | 10 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 DJ Dudley G · #0 | 24 | 10 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 G. Pickens G · #1 | 20 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 P. Woodson F · #30 | 13 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 A. Diongue C · #15 | 17 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
 J. Cantave G · #5 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Deffebaugh G · #3 | 9 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 O. Smith G · #2 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Grant G · #11 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Washington G · #13 | 15 | 8 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 KK Robinson G · #7 | 15 | 7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 S. Payne F · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Warren G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 21-48 | 4-14 | 22-24 | 26 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NMSU | GONZ | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-48 | 38-62 |
| FG% | 44 | 61 |
| 3PT | 4-14 | 13-24 |
| 3P% | 29 | 54 |
| FT | 22-24 | 20-29 |
| FT% | 92 | 69 |
| REB | 26 | 30 |
| OR | 9 | 11 |
| DR | 17 | 19 |
| AST | 6 | 23 |
| STL | 3 | 10 |
| BLK | 1 | 3 |
| TO | 19 | 6 |
| TTO | 3 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 6 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 36 |
| FBPs | 4 | 20 |
| PIP | 34 | 42 |
| PF | 18 | 19 |
| LL | 3 | 41 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 4 | 92 |
At lock NMSU 63.89–87.77 GONZ · GONZ by 23.9 pts vs NMSU +27.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Lavrenov · NMSU
35 MIN · 19 PTSB. Huff · GONZ
25 MIN · 20 PTSDavis Fogle · GONZ
STAT · 33 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-13 FG · 3-6 3PTIsiah Harwell · GONZ
STAT · 30 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-10 FG · 4-6 3PTJavon Bennett · GONZ
STAT · 18 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-6 FG · 2-3 3PTMassamba Diop · GONZ
STAT · 33 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-8 FG · 1-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
New Mexico St vs Gonzaga pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NMSU +27.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day