Evansville Purple Aces at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Final · ESPN+
68–73Last shot · Quintero Barnett makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected EVAN 69.48–76.11 MTSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 5:30 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1371722936
- Winner: MTSU (72%)
- Spread: EVAN +7.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 144.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)5
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
EVAN 69.48–76.11 MTSU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMTSU +10.6 off · EVAN +10.2 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MTSU
- RecordMTSU 2-1 · EVAN 2-1
- Market priorBlended 84% toward MTSU -9.5 / total 142.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EVAN | 20 | 48 | 68 |
| MTSU | 27 | 46 | 73 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 1:3058–67
Jahvin Carter makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3058–68
Jahvin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1260–68
Bryce Quinet makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 1:0560–69
Jahvin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4563–69
Caden Symons makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bryce Quinet assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4063–70
Quintero Barnett makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3465–70
Bryce Quinet makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:2665–71
Jahvin Carter makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2665–72
Jahvin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2466–72
Max Langenfeld makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0868–72
Makuei Riek makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:0768–73
Quintero Barnett makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| EVAN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Winther F · #96 | 22 | 7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 AJ Casey F · #23 | 32 | 4 | 0-10 | 0-4 | 4-6 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
 C. Symons G · #24 | 28 | 9 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
 B. Quinet G · #0 | 38 | 19 | 8-19 | 2-9 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 M. Langenfeld G · #9 | 35 | 18 | 5-11 | 5-10 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
 Y. Pinas F · #7 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JR Kemm G · #5 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 A. Gutman G · #33 | 21 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 M. Riek G · #1 | 17 | 6 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 B. Renn F · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Genschaw F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Nejezchleb F · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Dyson-Merwe F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Ellspermann G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Masumyan G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 22-62 | 10-34 | 14-19 | 36 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| EVAN | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-62 | 27-53 |
| FG% | 35 | 51 |
| 3PT | 10-34 | 5-22 |
| 3P% | 29 | 23 |
| FT | 14-19 | 14-21 |
| FT% | 74 | 67 |
| REB | 36 | 35 |
| OR | 12 | 5 |
| DR | 24 | 30 |
| AST | 12 | 12 |
| STL | 8 | 7 |
| BLK | 1 | 6 |
| TO | 11 | 13 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 11 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 8 |
| FBPs | 5 | 5 |
| PIP | 20 | 40 |
| PF | 20 | 17 |
| LL | 2 | 14 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 8 | 83 |
At lock EVAN 69.48–76.11 MTSU · MTSU by 6.6 pts vs EVAN +7.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitG. Winther · EVAN
22 MIN · 7 PTSO. Naveh · MTSU
33 MIN · 5 PTSBryce Quinet · EVAN
STAT · 38 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-19 FG · 2-9 3PTMax Langenfeld · EVAN
STAT · 35 MIN · 18 PTS · 5-11 FG · 5-10 3PTQuintero Barnett · MTSU
STAT · 34 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-14 FG · 2-7 3PTJahvin Carter · MTSU
STAT · 35 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-11 FG · 1-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Evansville vs MTSU pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is EVAN +7.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day