Jacksonville State Gamecocks at South Alabama Jaguars
Final/2OT · ESPN+
80–83Last shot · Naas Cunningham misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected JXST 68.26–72.38 USA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2784274272
- Winner: South Alabama (65%)
- Spread: JXST +4.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 140.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
JXST 68.26–72.38 USA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUSA +23.7 off · JXST +19.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to USA
- RecordUSA 1-1 · JXST 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward USA -5.5 / total 138.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 32 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 80 |
| USA | 23 | 43 | 6 | 11 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- FTOT 1:5672–72
Leon Horner makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2OT 4:3673–72
Jordan Stiemke makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2OT 3:4575–72
Ethan Croley makes 3-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2OT 2:4675–74
Jalen Langsy makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2OT 2:0675–76
Diego Roman makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2OT 1:2475–79
Aaron Goldstein makes 27-foot three point jumper (Diego Roman assists)
- FT2OT 1:0375–80
Jalen Langsy makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2OT 1:0375–81
Jalen Langsy makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2OT 0:5076–81
Jordan Stiemke makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2OT 0:5077–81
Jordan Stiemke makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2OT 0:2580–81
Jordan Stiemke makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naas Cunningham assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2OT 0:0980–83
Stephen Williams makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| JXST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 E. Croley F · #10 | 31 | 9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 |
 K. Polk F · #11 | 16 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
 L. Horner G · #6 | 35 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 J. Stiemke G · #2 | 46 | 27 | 8-18 | 6-16 | 5-6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 C. Lockett Jr. G · #1 | 48 | 25 | 8-16 | 8-13 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 A. Curry F · #4 | 12 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Hill F · #0 | 17 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
 N. Cunningham F · #3 | 38 | 9 | 3-15 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 M. Christie III G · #9 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Vick G · #8 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 G. Gondrezick II G · #5 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 W. Itumo F · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Walker F · #34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Harden G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Hernandez G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 80 | 27-64 | 16-39 | 10-17 | 40 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| JXST | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-64 | 33-71 |
| FG% | 42 | 46 |
| 3PT | 16-39 | 5-27 |
| 3P% | 41 | 19 |
| FT | 10-17 | 12-17 |
| FT% | 59 | 71 |
| REB | 40 | 38 |
| OR | 10 | 10 |
| DR | 30 | 28 |
| AST | 20 | 15 |
| STL | 8 | 7 |
| BLK | 6 | 0 |
| TO | 14 | 9 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 14 |
| FBPs | 14 | 12 |
| PIP | 22 | 52 |
| PF | 22 | 16 |
| LL | 16 | 6 |
| LC | 9 | 9 |
| LPCT | 69 | 13 |
At lock JXST 68.26–72.38 USA · USA by 4.1 pts vs JXST +4.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitE. Croley · JXST
31 MIN · 9 PTSD. Hueitt · USA
19 MIN · 2 PTSJordan Stiemke · JXST
STAT · 46 MIN · 27 PTS · 8-18 FG · 6-16 3PTStephen Williams · USA
STAT · 43 MIN · 27 PTS · 13-16 FG · 1-5 FTChris Lockett Jr. · JXST
STAT · 48 MIN · 25 PTS · 8-16 FG · 8-13 3PTJalen Langsy · USA
STAT · 43 MIN · 25 PTS · 7-15 FG · 2-8 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Jax State vs South Alabama pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is JXST +4.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day