Montana State Bobcats at Colorado State Rams
Final
74–84Last shot · Jeremiah Davis misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected MTST 67.92–78.28 CSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2304325753
- Winner: Colorado St (82%)
- Spread: MTST +11.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 146.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MTST 67.92–78.28 CSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCSU +0.0 off · MTST +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CSU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward CSU -10.5 / total 147.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTST | 38 | 36 | 74 |
| CSU | 44 | 40 | 84 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:4466–73
Justin Menard makes driving layup (Jase Butler assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:4566–74
Jaden Ghoreishi makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4566–75
Jaden Ghoreishi makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:5866–77
Jaden Ghoreishi makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4668–77
Jaden Steppe makes layup
- FT2nd Half 2:4569–77
Jaden Steppe makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0672–77
Cavin Holden makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Crane assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1172–80
Josh Pascarelli makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jojo McIver assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:2072–82
Carey Booth makes 1-foot dunk (Jase Butler assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1374–82
Jaden Steppe makes 6-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:0774–83
Carey Booth makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0774–84
Carey Booth makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MTST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. King F · #31 | 27 | 13 | 4-13 | 2-9 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 |
 J. Steppe F · #44 | 23 | 9 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 5-7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 C. Holden G · #4 | 31 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Davis G · #5 | 31 | 17 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
 D. Slater G · #0 | 20 | 6 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 H. Hansen F · #7 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 S. Amunrud G · #12 | 15 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 H. Keene G · #2 | 27 | 15 | 5-9 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 I. Crane G · #1 | 19 | 7 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 L. Praytor F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Steward F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Rutherfurd F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Mbatch F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
D D. Johnson G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Purdie G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Miller G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 74 | 25-62 | 12-34 | 12-17 | 27 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MTST | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-62 | 29-54 |
| FG% | 40 | 54 |
| 3PT | 12-34 | 7-19 |
| 3P% | 35 | 37 |
| FT | 12-17 | 19-22 |
| FT% | 71 | 86 |
| REB | 27 | 39 |
| OR | 8 | 7 |
| DR | 19 | 32 |
| AST | 10 | 16 |
| STL | 12 | 7 |
| BLK | 1 | 3 |
| TO | 11 | 16 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 11 | 16 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 21 | 18 |
| FBPs | 8 | 8 |
| PIP | 16 | 44 |
| PF | 23 | 15 |
| LL | 2 | 11 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 3 | 94 |
At lock MTST 67.92–78.28 CSU · CSU by 10.4 pts vs MTST +11.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitC. King · MTST
27 MIN · 13 PTSK. Jorgensen · CSU
29 MIN · 8 PTSJeremiah Davis · MTST
STAT · 31 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-9 FG · 3-6 3PTCarey Booth · CSU
STAT · 28 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-10 FG · 0-1 3PTJosh Pascarelli · CSU
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-10 FG · 1-5 3PTHowie Keene · MTST
STAT · 27 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-9 FG · 4-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Montana St vs Colorado St pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MTST +11.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day