Samford Bulldogs at UNLV Rebels
Final · MW+
79–88Last shot · Cade Norris misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected SAM 73.58–83.59 UNLV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 1:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3352786215
- Winner: UNLV (81%)
- Spread: SAM +11.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 156.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SAM 73.58–83.59 UNLV · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUNLV +10.9 off · SAM +9.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UNLV
- RecordUNLV 2-0 · SAM 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward UNLV -11.5 / total 158.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAM | 40 | 39 | 79 |
| UNLV | 45 | 43 | 88 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 6:4372–76
Dontrez Williams makes 6-foot dunk (Sebastian Mack assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:0172–78
Sebastian Mack makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:3974–78
Cooper Noard makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:1274–81
Cam Miles makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrin Jones assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1576–81
Cade Norris makes layup
- FT2nd Half 3:4576–82
Tyrin Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4576–83
Tyrin Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3277–83
Ty Davis makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3278–83
Ty Davis makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1078–85
Tyrin Jones makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2578–88
Cam Miles makes 28-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:1879–88
Isaiah Campbell-Finch makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SAM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 W. Shaver C · #35 | 26 | 14 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 |
 C. Norris G · #5 | 36 | 17 | 7-16 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
 Ty Davis G · #9 | 30 | 8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 C. Noard G · #1 | 38 | 20 | 7-12 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 I. Campbell-Finch G · #3 | 30 | 14 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 B. MacVicar F · #13 | 12 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 L. Lee C · #32 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 JD Gossett G · #7 | 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 N. George G · #10 | 10 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 B. Fussell G · #14 | 10 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 W. Miller G · #0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 B. Kemp F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Bjornstad F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Harrison F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Hughes F · #31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Davenport G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Brown G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Lamey G · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 79 | 30-62 | 5-20 | 14-19 | 28 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SAM | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 30-62 | 29-58 |
| FG% | 48 | 50 |
| 3PT | 5-20 | 5-15 |
| 3P% | 25 | 33 |
| FT | 14-19 | 25-32 |
| FT% | 74 | 78 |
| REB | 28 | 38 |
| OR | 5 | 11 |
| DR | 23 | 27 |
| AST | 16 | 6 |
| STL | 7 | 6 |
| BLK | 1 | 7 |
| TO | 11 | 13 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 21 | 8 |
| FBPs | 15 | 10 |
| PIP | 50 | 46 |
| PF | 23 | 19 |
| LL | 8 | 10 |
| LC | 9 | 9 |
| LPCT | 19 | 76 |
At lock SAM 73.58–83.59 UNLV · UNLV by 10.0 pts vs SAM +11.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitW. Shaver · SAM
26 MIN · 14 PTST. Jones · UNLV
34 MIN · 17 PTSCooper Noard · SAM
STAT · 38 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-12 FG · 3-6 3PTCam Miles · UNLV
STAT · 36 MIN · 20 PTS · 4-10 FG · 4-9 3PTCade Norris · SAM
STAT · 36 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-16 FG · 0-4 3PTSebastian Mack · UNLV
STAT · 31 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-13 FG · 0-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Samford vs UNLV pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SAM +11.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day