Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at New Mexico Lobos
Final · MW+
65–94Last shot · Dax Hall makes driving layup
At lock: projected NAU 66.17–90.11 UNM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 1:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 830325965
- Winner: New Mexico (98%)
- Spread: NAU +26.5 covers (59%)
- Total: Over 155.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)5
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NAU 66.17–90.11 UNM · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUNM +23.5 off · NAU +15.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UNM
- RecordUNM 2-0 · NAU 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward UNM -28.5 / total 157.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAU | 30 | 35 | 65 |
| UNM | 46 | 48 | 94 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:5557–82
Hudson Mayes makes 3-foot dunk (Dax Hall assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2559–82
Max Majerle makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1059–84
Hudson Mayes makes layup (Chris Howell assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4661–84
Ryan Abelman makes layup
- FT2nd Half 2:4662–84
Ryan Abelman makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3462–87
Fynn Lastring makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dax Hall assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0162–90
Fynn Lastring makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dax Hall assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:3363–90
Chris Komin makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:1863–92
Hudson Mayes makes 3-foot dunk
- FT2nd Half 0:5664–92
Max Majerle makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5665–92
Max Majerle makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2765–94
Dax Hall makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NAU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Toukam F · #1 | 33 | 10 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 4-7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
 D. Anderson F · #4 | 26 | 8 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 C. Komin G · #2 | 39 | 21 | 7-14 | 2-6 | 5-6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
 M. Majerle G · #7 | 19 | 6 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 R. Abelman G · #11 | 35 | 12 | 4-12 | 3-11 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 Z. Tanner F · #33 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Green F · #6 | 18 | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 L. Wieskamp F · #3 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 N. George G · #23 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Dorsey G · #0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Bennett G · #22 | 21 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 N. Keutcha C · #31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Mautz G · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Peterson G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 JT Amundsen G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 65 | 19-46 | 6-29 | 21-27 | 34 | 12 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NAU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-46 | 34-70 |
| FG% | 41 | 49 |
| 3PT | 6-29 | 7-26 |
| 3P% | 21 | 27 |
| FT | 21-27 | 19-24 |
| FT% | 78 | 79 |
| REB | 34 | 35 |
| OR | 10 | 16 |
| DR | 24 | 19 |
| AST | 12 | 20 |
| STL | 1 | 11 |
| BLK | 2 | 0 |
| TO | 16 | 2 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 2 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 0 | 23 |
| FBPs | 5 | 18 |
| PIP | 24 | 48 |
| PF | 20 | 24 |
| LL | 0 | 29 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock NAU 66.17–90.11 UNM · UNM by 23.9 pts vs NAU +26.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissL. Toukam · NAU
33 MIN · 10 PTSF. Grani · UNM
12 MIN · 6 PTSJake Hall · UNM
STAT · 26 MIN · 23 PTS · 6-10 FG · 2-4 3PTChris Komin · NAU
STAT · 39 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-14 FG · 2-6 3PTUriah Tenette · UNM
STAT · 24 MIN · 18 PTS · 5-11 FG · 1-5 3PTHudson Mayes · UNM
STAT · 26 MIN · 16 PTS · 8-17 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Arizona vs New Mexico pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NAU +26.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day