Quinnipiac Bobcats at Michigan State Spartans
Final · B1G+
59–96Last shot · Tai Turnage misses layup
At lock: projected QUIN 61.47–87.31 MSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2657114960
- Winner: Michigan St (99%)
- Spread: QUIN +29.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Under 149.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
QUIN 61.47–87.31 MSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMSU +0.0 off · QUIN +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MSU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward MSU -30.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| QUIN | 24 | 35 | 59 |
| MSU | 52 | 44 | 96 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:4649–86
Jordan Scott makes 4-foot dunk (Kur Teng assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:2849–88
Coen Carr makes 6-foot dunk (Jordan Scott assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0952–88
Nate Guerengomba makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tai Turnage assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:0552–89
Kur Teng makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:0552–90
Kur Teng makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1654–90
Tayeshawn Cunningham-Pemberton makes layup (Tai Turnage assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:5054–92
Anton Bonke makes 5-foot alley oop dunk (Jeremy Fears Jr. assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0954–94
Julius Avent makes layup (Jeremy Fears Jr. assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:0255–94
Tai Turnage makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0256–94
Tai Turnage makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3359–94
Jayden Reid makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tai Turnage assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3559–96
Matthew Watkins makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| QUIN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. McKnight F · #21 | 25 | 8 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 2-5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
 H. Pierre-Louis F · #12 | 14 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 T. Cunningham-Pemberton G · #5 | 22 | 11 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 L. Sekasi G · #0 | 29 | 9 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 N. Guerengomba G · #9 | 24 | 10 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 N. Cholevinskas F · #17 | 19 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 A. Diouf F · #11 | 19 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 N. Hart F · #3 | 15 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 J. Reid F · #1 | 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 A. Akinniyi F · #34 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T. Turnage G · #4 | 14 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 M. Parrotta G · #24 | 13 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Skenderi F · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Ritvo F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Fields G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 59 | 20-56 | 6-21 | 13-24 | 27 | 15 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| QUIN | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-56 | 36-62 |
| FG% | 36 | 58 |
| 3PT | 6-21 | 9-23 |
| 3P% | 29 | 39 |
| FT | 13-24 | 15-26 |
| FT% | 54 | 58 |
| REB | 27 | 46 |
| OR | 11 | 14 |
| DR | 16 | 32 |
| AST | 15 | 22 |
| STL | 6 | 10 |
| BLK | 1 | 8 |
| TO | 16 | 12 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 12 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 23 |
| FBPs | 8 | 36 |
| PIP | 22 | 50 |
| PF | 19 | 21 |
| LL | 0 | 40 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock QUIN 61.47–87.31 MSU · MSU by 25.8 pts vs QUIN +29.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissK. McKnight · QUIN
25 MIN · 8 PTSJ. Scott · MSU
22 MIN · 11 PTSJeremy Fears Jr. · MSU
STAT · 26 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-8 FG · 1-3 3PTCoen Carr · MSU
STAT · 25 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-8 FG · 1-1 3PTTayeshawn Cunningham-Pemberton · QUIN
STAT · 22 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-9 FG · 1-4 3PTAnton Bonke · MSU
STAT · 20 MIN · 11 PTS · 5-7 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Quinnipiac vs Michigan St pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is QUIN +29.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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