Hofstra Pride at Princeton Tigers
Final · ESPN+
58–60Last shot · Deywilk Tavarez misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected HOF 68.30–70.61 PRIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 97484244
- Winner: Princeton (58%)
- Spread: PRIN -2.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 138.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)22
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
HOF 68.30–70.61 PRIN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defensePRIN +16.4 off · HOF +17.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to PRIN
- RecordPRIN 2-0 · HOF 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward PRIN -2.5 / total 137.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOF | 30 | 28 | 58 |
| PRIN | 23 | 37 | 60 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 1:3154–45
Justin Moore makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3155–45
Justin Moore makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:2155–47
Ethan Sabec makes 4-foot dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0555–50
Christopher Kirkpatrick makes 26-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:5956–50
Nick Jefferson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5957–50
Nick Jefferson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5257–53
Jack Stanton makes 35-foot three point jumper (Jacob Huggins assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4757–55
Jack Stanton makes layup (Landon Clark assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1857–58
Landon Clark makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dalen Davis assists)
- XP2nd Half 0:0257–59
Christopher Kirkpatrick makes free throw 1 of 2
- XP2nd Half 0:0257–60
Christopher Kirkpatrick makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0058–60
Deywilk Tavarez makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| HOF | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 S. Wewe F · #12 | 14 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 J. DeCady F · #4 | 24 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 T. Boyd III G · #3 | 24 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Moore G · #1 | 36 | 12 | 5-16 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
 T. Thomas G · #25 | 36 | 14 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
 R. Dunn F · #9 | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 I. Zorgvol F · #15 | 18 | 7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 N. Jefferson G · #2 | 29 | 10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 D. Tavarez G · #5 | 11 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 A. Stennett G · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Gelin G · #19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Onwughai G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Cascione G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 X. Blake G · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Lopez G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 58 | 24-50 | 4-17 | 6-8 | 38 | 10 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| HOF | PRIN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-50 | 18-59 |
| FG% | 48 | 31 |
| 3PT | 4-17 | 12-40 |
| 3P% | 24 | 30 |
| FT | 6-8 | 12-17 |
| FT% | 75 | 71 |
| REB | 38 | 30 |
| OR | 9 | 12 |
| DR | 29 | 18 |
| AST | 10 | 12 |
| STL | 4 | 10 |
| BLK | 0 | 0 |
| TO | 18 | 8 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 18 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 18 |
| FBPs | 0 | 5 |
| PIP | 30 | 12 |
| PF | 15 | 16 |
| LL | 12 | 5 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 61 | 32 |
At lock HOF 68.30–70.61 PRIN · PRIN by 2.3 pts vs HOF +2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitS. Wewe · HOF
14 MIN · 4 PTSJ. Huggins · PRIN
18 MIN · 0-4 FGTanner Thomas · HOF
STAT · 36 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-12 FG · 2-6 3PTJack Stanton · PRIN
STAT · 23 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-8 FG · 4-7 3PTJustin Moore · HOF
STAT · 36 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-16 FG · 0-6 3PTNick Jefferson · HOF
STAT · 29 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-6 FG · 2-2 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Hofstra vs Princeton pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is HOF +2.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day