Iona Gaels at St. John's Red Storm
Final · Peacock
65–104Last shot · Oliver Sassella misses 23-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected IONA 63.27–87.89 SJU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1601402291
- Winner: St John's (98%)
- Spread: IONA +28.5 covers (63%)
- Total: Under 151.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)18
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
IONA 63.27–87.89 SJU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSJU +11.2 off · IONA +12.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SJU
- RecordSJU 2-0 · IONA 2-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward SJU -26.5 / total 150.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IONA | 23 | 42 | 65 |
| SJU | 54 | 50 | 104 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:1057–93
Oliver Sassella makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:1058–93
Oliver Sassella makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:0058–94
Zsombor Maronka makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:0058–95
Zsombor Maronka makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0258–97
Kyle Cuffe Jr. makes layup (Avery Brown assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:1158–98
Kyle Cuffe Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:1058–99
Kyle Cuffe Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5360–99
Panagiotis Lefas makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0862–99
Alliou Fall makes layup (Oliver Sassella assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4862–101
Lazar Stojkovic makes 4-foot hook shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3665–101
Oliver Sassella makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nathan Kirk assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2665–104
Kyle Cuffe Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Reed Bailey assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| IONA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Disu F · #8 | 14 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 K. Mitchell F · #22 | 24 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
 S. Ibine Ayo F · #11 | 25 | 11 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 K. Vanderhorst G · #5 | 27 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 K. Akametu G · #3 | 22 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 A. Fall F · #44 | 16 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 O. Odutayo F · #00 | 20 | 12 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 L. Jungers F · #7 | 15 | 8 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
M M. Moshinski G · #24 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N N. Kirk G · #21 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
O O. Sassella G · #13 | 19 | 7 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
P P. Lefas G · #1 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Kheil G · #95 | 12 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A A. Williams G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
M M. Tannenbaum G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
D D. Doyle G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Hourruitiner Jr. G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 65 | 22-54 | 10-29 | 11-13 | 28 | 14 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| IONA | SJU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-54 | 37-67 |
| FG% | 41 | 55 |
| 3PT | 10-29 | 13-28 |
| 3P% | 34 | 46 |
| FT | 11-13 | 17-24 |
| FT% | 85 | 71 |
| REB | 28 | 38 |
| OR | 8 | 12 |
| DR | 20 | 26 |
| AST | 14 | 22 |
| STL | 1 | 9 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 19 | 4 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 19 | 4 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 2 | 26 |
| FBPs | 10 | 13 |
| PIP | 22 | 48 |
| PF | 21 | 11 |
| LL | 0 | 43 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 98 |
At lock IONA 63.27–87.89 SJU · SJU by 24.6 pts vs IONA +28.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissA. Disu · IONA
14 MIN · 2 PTSR. Prey · SJU
23 MIN · 5 PTSTounde Yessoufou · SJU
STAT · 21 MIN · 23 PTS · 9-14 FG · 4-7 3PTIan Jackson · SJU
STAT · 20 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-12 FG · 3-8 3PTKeyshawn Hall · SJU
STAT · 23 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-10 FG · 1-3 3PTOre Odutayo · IONA
STAT · 20 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-5 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Iona vs St John's pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is IONA +28.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day