Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at Evansville Purple Aces
Final/OT · ESPN+
76–78Last shot · Aaron Gutman makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected USI 68.85–75.14 EVAN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:42 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1654579094
- Winner: Evansville (71%)
- Spread: USI +7.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 143.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)10
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
USI 68.85–75.14 EVAN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseEVAN +17.6 off · USI +9.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to EVAN
- RecordEVAN 2-0 · USI 1-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward EVAN -7.5 / total 143.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USI | 35 | 34 | 7 | 76 |
| EVAN | 30 | 39 | 9 | 78 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 0:2868–66
Afan Trnka makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2869–66
Afan Trnka makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0869–69
Max Langenfeld makes 25-foot three point jumper (Caden Symons assists)
- FTOT 3:0770–69
Kaden Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOTOT 2:5470–72
Caden Symons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bryce Quinet assists)
- JUMPSHOTOT 2:3273–72
Kaden Brown makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josiah Dunham assists)
- FTOT 2:2173–73
AJ Casey makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 2:0074–73
Afan Trnka makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOTOT 1:4974–76
Max Langenfeld makes 25-foot three point jumper (Caden Symons assists)
- FTOT 0:5174–77
AJ Casey makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOTOT 0:3176–77
Donovan Hunter makes layup
- FTOT 0:0076–78
Aaron Gutman makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| USI | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Pautsch F · #31 | 7 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 F. Sylla G · #21 | 16 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 A. Trnka G · #4 | 39 | 22 | 7-14 | 2-6 | 6-9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
 J. Dunham G · #22 | 28 | 7 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
 K. Brown G · #0 | 43 | 17 | 5-15 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
 D. Maleng F · #15 | 7 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Hunter F · #5 | 24 | 11 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
 Y. Yamanouchi-Williams F · #10 | 26 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
 J. Smith G · #1 | 16 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 A. Fejzic G · #33 | 5 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Y. Warren G · #3 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Gooch G · #2 | 7 | 4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 LA Hayes G · #7 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Hryshchuk F · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Knight G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 76 | 25-66 | 12-35 | 14-30 | 47 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| USI | EVAN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-66 | 25-64 |
| FG% | 38 | 39 |
| 3PT | 12-35 | 15-39 |
| 3P% | 34 | 38 |
| FT | 14-30 | 13-21 |
| FT% | 47 | 62 |
| REB | 47 | 45 |
| OR | 13 | 10 |
| DR | 34 | 35 |
| AST | 18 | 18 |
| STL | 6 | 5 |
| BLK | 2 | 7 |
| TO | 8 | 9 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 8 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 6 | 13 |
| FBPs | 14 | 13 |
| PIP | 22 | 20 |
| PF | 20 | 22 |
| LL | 8 | 6 |
| LC | 19 | 19 |
| LPCT | 52 | 34 |
At lock USI 68.85–75.14 EVAN · EVAN by 6.3 pts vs USI +7.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Pautsch · USI
7 MIN · 1 PTSJ. Dyson-Merwe · EVAN
11 MIN · 4 PTSBryce Quinet · EVAN
STAT · 39 MIN · 23 PTS · 7-19 FG · 2-9 3PTAfan Trnka · USI
STAT · 39 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-14 FG · 2-6 3PTAJ Casey · EVAN
STAT · 42 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-12 FG · 4-8 3PTKaden Brown · USI
STAT · 43 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-15 FG · 5-10 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
S Indiana vs Evansville pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is USI +7.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day