North Florida Ospreys at UCLA Bruins
Final · BTN
63–114Last shot · Arden Begaj misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UNF 63.46–92.47 UCLA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1926639069
- Winner: UCLA (99%)
- Spread: UNF +33.5 covers (66%)
- Total: Over 155.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)23
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UNF 63.46–92.47 UCLA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUCLA +13.6 off · UNF +14.3 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UCLA
- RecordUCLA 2-0 · UNF 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward UCLA -31.5 / total 157.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNF | 20 | 43 | 63 |
| UCLA | 52 | 62 | 114 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:5552–109
Chris Perry makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:1853–109
Chris Perry makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2656–109
Chris Perry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Elijah Elliott assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1056–112
Sergej Macura makes 26-foot three point jumper (Azavier Robinson assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:1356–113
Sergej Macura makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0257–113
BJ Plummer makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0258–113
BJ Plummer makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1859–113
Eddie Placer makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1860–113
Eddie Placer makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5462–113
Eddie Placer makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5163–113
Eddie Placer makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 0:2763–114
Jordan Houegban makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UNF | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Bryant Jr. F · #21 | 17 | 7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 M. Watkins G · #0 | 23 | 6 | 2-11 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
 K. Jackson G · #11 | 25 | 11 | 4-11 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 E. Elliott G · #5 | 19 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Lee G · #2 | 20 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
 I. Brown F · #8 | 11 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
 A. Begaj F · #12 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 JR Bartelus G · #13 | 23 | 8 | 4-13 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 E. Bergantino G · #6 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Kohn G · #35 | 9 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Perry G · #4 | 8 | 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 BJ Plummer G · #1 | 22 | 10 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
 E. Placer G · #3 | 18 | 10 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 G. Jacobs G · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 63 | 20-63 | 10-34 | 13-20 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNF | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-63 | 38-70 |
| FG% | 32 | 54 |
| 3PT | 10-34 | 14-29 |
| 3P% | 29 | 48 |
| FT | 13-20 | 24-34 |
| FT% | 65 | 71 |
| REB | 34 | 49 |
| OR | 9 | 14 |
| DR | 25 | 35 |
| AST | 11 | 24 |
| STL | 3 | 12 |
| BLK | 1 | 4 |
| TO | 17 | 8 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 17 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 28 |
| FBPs | 0 | 22 |
| PIP | 16 | 38 |
| PF | 23 | 20 |
| LL | 1 | 58 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 4 | 91 |
At lock UNF 63.46–92.47 UCLA · UCLA by 29.0 pts vs UNF +33.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissA. Bryant Jr. · UNF
17 MIN · 7 PTSN. Kusturica · UCLA
23 MIN · 29 PTSJaylen Petty · UCLA
STAT · 25 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-12 FG · 3-6 3PTJoe Philon III · UCLA
STAT · 21 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-7 FG · 3-3 3PTKent Jackson · UNF
STAT · 25 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-11 FG · 3-6 3PTEric Dailey Jr. · UCLA
STAT · 29 MIN · 11 PTS · 5-11 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
North Florida vs UCLA pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UNF +33.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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