South Carolina Upstate Spartans at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Final · ESPN+
56–65Last shot · David Tubek misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UPST 70.04–78.77 CCU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 9:01 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3507936263
- Winner: Coastal (77%)
- Spread: UPST +10.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 148.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)28
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UPST 70.04–78.77 CCU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCCU +7.1 off · UPST +16.7 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CCU
- RecordCCU 1-2 · UPST 0-3
- Market priorBlended 84% toward CCU -10.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPST | 25 | 31 | 56 |
| CCU | 29 | 36 | 65 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 7:2649–52
David Tubek makes 11-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 7:1049–54
Drew Fuquay makes layup (Q Williams IV assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:3449–56
Derrick Green makes layup
- FT2nd Half 6:0749–57
Jaylen Cross makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:3149–59
Darius Washington III makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:0949–61
Trey Perry makes driving layup (Jaylen Cross assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:3849–63
Darius Washington III makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 3:5150–63
David Tubek makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5151–63
David Tubek makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:4351–65
Trey Perry makes driving layup (Jaylen Cross assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2053–65
Ries Naugle makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2556–65
David Tubek makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amont'e Allen-Johnson assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UPST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Edmond F · #12 | 36 | 7 | 1-11 | 0-7 | 5-8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
 A. Perotti F · #15 | 12 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
 D. Tubek F · #0 | 33 | 27 | 10-18 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
 R. Naugle G · #5 | 30 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 A. Allen-Johnson G · #1 | 33 | 11 | 4-11 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 Z. Johnson F · #24 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Collier C · #7 | 28 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Patterson G · #2 | 24 | 4 | 1-11 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Baldwin F · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Radivojevic F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Payne II F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Webb F · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Mvula G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Tessema G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 CJ Rich G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 56 | 18-60 | 6-26 | 14-22 | 40 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 12 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UPST | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-60 | 26-60 |
| FG% | 30 | 43 |
| 3PT | 6-26 | 6-18 |
| 3P% | 23 | 33 |
| FT | 14-22 | 7-12 |
| FT% | 64 | 58 |
| REB | 40 | 40 |
| OR | 15 | 11 |
| DR | 25 | 29 |
| AST | 3 | 12 |
| STL | 9 | 5 |
| BLK | 6 | 3 |
| TO | 11 | 12 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 11 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 7 |
| FBPs | 8 | 10 |
| PIP | 18 | 38 |
| PF | 12 | 17 |
| LL | 3 | 14 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 4 | 82 |
At lock UPST 70.04–78.77 CCU · CCU by 8.7 pts vs UPST +10.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitD. Edmond · UPST
36 MIN · 7 PTSD. Fuquay · CCU
20 MIN · 9 PTSDavid Tubek · UPST
STAT · 33 MIN · 27 PTS · 10-18 FG · 3-7 3PTTrey Perry · CCU
STAT · 27 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-14 FG · 2-4 3PTDarius Washington III · CCU
STAT · 25 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-11 FG · 1-2 3PTAmont'e Allen-Johnson · UPST
STAT · 33 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-11 FG · 2-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
SC Upstate vs Coastal pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UPST +10.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day