North Carolina Central Eagles at Longwood Lancers
Final/OT · ESPN+
75–80Last shot · Cristian Sanon misses 23-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected NCCU 68.85–79.15 LONG
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1091664937
- Winner: Longwood (81%)
- Spread: NCCU +11.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 148.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NCCU 68.85–79.15 LONG · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseLONG +22.7 off · NCCU +11.4 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to LONG
- RecordLONG 2-1 · NCCU 0-2
- Market priorBlended 71% toward LONG -13.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCCU | 27 | 41 | 7 | 75 |
| LONG | 35 | 33 | 12 | 80 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1068–67
Jaylen Benard makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:1068–68
Jaylen Benard makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOTOT 4:2568–70
Jaylen Benard makes layup (Lazar Milosevic assists)
- LAYUPSHOTOT 3:5570–70
Tyler Mason makes layup
- FTOT 3:4170–71
Alphonzo Billups III makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOTOT 3:2072–71
Tyler Mason makes layup (Darius Kane assists)
- JUMPSHOTOT 2:4675–71
Cristian Sanon makes 31-foot three point jumper (Darius Kane assists)
- JUMPSHOTOT 2:2075–74
Lazar Milosevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (MJ Williams assists)
- LAYUPSHOTOT 1:3375–76
Lazar Milosevic makes layup
- JUMPSHOTOT 0:4375–78
Lazar Milosevic makes 3-foot hook shot
- FTOT 0:1675–79
Kany Musungay makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:1675–80
Kany Musungay makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NCCU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Duor F · #3 | 32 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
 T. Mason F · #12 | 26 | 20 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 C. Sanon G · #23 | 39 | 8 | 2-14 | 2-13 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 D. Kane G · #2 | 34 | 22 | 7-10 | 2-2 | 6-10 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 T. Brown G · #6 | 36 | 10 | 3-11 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
 J. Price F · #13 | 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Meeks F · #0 | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Vassel F · #8 | 12 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
V V. Alao G · #11 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Thomas G · #9 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 I. Buckley G · #4 | 11 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 R. Archey G · #10 | 10 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 D. Mbaeteka C · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Selby G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Bowser G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 75 | 28-64 | 4-20 | 15-24 | 37 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NCCU | LONG | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-64 | 29-62 |
| FG% | 44 | 47 |
| 3PT | 4-20 | 11-28 |
| 3P% | 20 | 39 |
| FT | 15-24 | 11-14 |
| FT% | 63 | 79 |
| REB | 37 | 40 |
| OR | 11 | 9 |
| DR | 26 | 31 |
| AST | 11 | 15 |
| STL | 6 | 6 |
| BLK | 5 | 2 |
| TO | 10 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 10 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 13 |
| FBPs | 6 | 9 |
| PIP | 40 | 36 |
| PF | 15 | 21 |
| LL | 8 | 14 |
| LC | 9 | 9 |
| LPCT | 29 | 62 |
At lock NCCU 68.85–79.15 LONG · LONG by 10.3 pts vs NCCU +11.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitD. Duor · NCCU
32 MIN · 4 PTSL. Milosevic · LONG
28 MIN · 11 PTSDarius Kane · NCCU
STAT · 34 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-10 FG · 2-2 3PTTyler Mason · NCCU
STAT · 26 MIN · 20 PTS · 9-12 FG · 2-3 FTAlphonzo Billups III · LONG
STAT · 43 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-14 FG · 5-8 3PTJaylen Benard · LONG
STAT · 30 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-9 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
NC Central vs Longwood pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NCCU +11.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day