Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigers
Final · SECN+
50–90Last shot · Jay Tyler makes 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected LT 61.93–88.39 LSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 9:01 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3191086467
- Winner: LSU (99%)
- Spread: LT +30.5 covers (63%)
- Total: Under 150.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LT 61.93–88.39 LSU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseLSU +13.9 off · LT +9.5 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to LSU
- RecordLSU 3-0 · LT 2-1
- Market priorBlended 84% toward LSU -29.5 / total 148.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LT | 20 | 30 | 50 |
| LSU | 47 | 43 | 90 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:2435–85
Michael Ruzic makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:1237–85
Jay Tyler makes 14-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 4:0837–86
Brice Dessert makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4038–86
Jaylen Fenner makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4039–86
Jaylen Fenner makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2641–86
Iyran Francis Jr. makes layup
- FT2nd Half 3:1441–87
Michael Ruzic makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5843–87
Jaylen Fenner makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1443–90
Michael Ruzic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Abdi Bashir Jr. assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2945–90
Jay Tyler makes layup
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:5047–90
Jaylen Fenner makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1050–90
Jay Tyler makes 26-foot three point jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LT | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 I. Francis Jr. F · #21 | 16 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
 B. Wenger F · #11 | 20 | 4 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Tyler G · #10 | 26 | 9 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 K. Tilley G · #2 | 12 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Fenner G · #4 | 26 | 12 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 4-7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
 I. Emelife F · #51 | 8 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 L. Rowe F · #9 | 11 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 E. Blackmon F · #33 | 20 | 7 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 A. Boyd G · #5 | 19 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Sanderson G · #3 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Bates G · #1 | 26 | 7 | 3-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
 T. Combs-Pierce NA · #15 | 11 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 B. Dixon G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 50 | 18-57 | 2-16 | 12-19 | 33 | 4 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LT | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-57 | 31-55 |
| FG% | 32 | 56 |
| 3PT | 2-16 | 8-24 |
| 3P% | 13 | 33 |
| FT | 12-19 | 20-29 |
| FT% | 63 | 69 |
| REB | 33 | 35 |
| OR | 16 | 9 |
| DR | 17 | 26 |
| AST | 4 | 21 |
| STL | 6 | 16 |
| BLK | 1 | 5 |
| TO | 23 | 14 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 23 | 14 |
| TECH | 1 | 2 |
| TECH | 1 | 2 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 38 |
| FBPs | 2 | 21 |
| PIP | 24 | 40 |
| PF | 21 | 15 |
| LL | 2 | 55 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock LT 61.93–88.39 LSU · LSU by 26.5 pts vs LT +29.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissI. Francis Jr. · LT
16 MIN · 4 PTSS. Niang · LSU
24 MIN · 6 PTSMichael Ruzic · LSU
STAT · 20 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-9 FG · 1-3 3PTAbdi Bashir Jr. · LSU
STAT · 23 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-12 FG · 4-11 3PTMo Dioubate · LSU
STAT · 22 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-6 FG · 1-1 3PTJaylen Fenner · LT
STAT · 26 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-8 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Louisiana Tech vs LSU pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LT +29.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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