LSU New Orleans Privateers at LSU Tigers
Final · SECN+
57–100Last shot · Marcus McDonald misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected NOLA 68.84–88.66 LSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 1:46 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3492936514
- Winner: LSU (96%)
- Spread: NOLA +22.5 covers (59%)
- Total: Under 157.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)24
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NOLA 68.84–88.66 LSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseLSU +0.0 off · NOLA +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to LSU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward LSU -27.5 / total 160.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOLA | 17 | 40 | 57 |
| LSU | 53 | 47 | 100 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:1247–90
Yohandry Ortiz makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0047–92
Gilad Levy makes layup (Saliou Niang assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:5149–92
Yohandry Ortiz makes layup
- FT2nd Half 3:1750–92
Yohandry Ortiz makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1751–92
Yohandry Ortiz makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3051–94
Donovan Dent makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5954–94
Kahlil Singleton makes 25-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4754–96
Gilad Levy makes layup (Skyy Clark assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:0555–96
Alan Shi makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5655–97
Gilad Levy makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3957–97
Walter Campbell makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2857–100
Gilad Levy makes 25-foot three point jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NOLA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 E. Boudouma F · #25 | 16 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 E. Nwakamma F · #10 | 9 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 N. Jones G · #5 | 22 | 3 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 3-6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 C. Okey G · #24 | 13 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 K. Singleton G · #11 | 22 | 6 | 2-9 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
W W. Campbell F · #14 | 11 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
A A. Shi F · #7 | 12 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
 K. Osby F · #21 | 26 | 8 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 S. Ominu F · #4 | 15 | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
 K. Ratliff F · #23 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Pace C · #34 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
S S. Parson G · #20 | 8 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
M M. McDonald G · #2 | 23 | 6 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Y Y. Ortiz G · #0 | 13 | 16 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 7-10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
 J. Chretien II G · #15 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A A. Manning Jr. G · #3 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J J. Awe F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 57 | 15-61 | 4-29 | 23-38 | 38 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NOLA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 15-61 | 39-76 |
| FG% | 25 | 51 |
| 3PT | 4-29 | 7-28 |
| 3P% | 14 | 25 |
| FT | 23-38 | 15-20 |
| FT% | 61 | 75 |
| REB | 38 | 53 |
| OR | 14 | 16 |
| DR | 24 | 37 |
| AST | 4 | 24 |
| STL | 7 | 11 |
| BLK | 4 | 6 |
| TO | 16 | 12 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 25 |
| FBPs | 14 | 30 |
| PIP | 20 | 60 |
| PF | 18 | 25 |
| LL | 0 | 54 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock NOLA 68.84–88.66 LSU · LSU by 19.8 pts vs NOLA +22.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissE. Boudouma · NOLA
16 MIN · 3 PTSS. Niang · LSU
23 MIN · 14 PTSDonovan Dent · LSU
STAT · 30 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-13 FG · 2-5 3PTMichael Ruzic · LSU
STAT · 25 MIN · 17 PTS · 8-11 FG · 0-2 3PTYohandry Ortiz · NOLA
STAT · 13 MIN · 16 PTS · 4-10 FG · 1-2 3PTBrice Dessert · LSU
STAT · 18 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-9 FG · 1-1 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
LSU N Orleans vs LSU pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NOLA +22.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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