Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Kentucky Wildcats
Final · SECN+
77–78Last shot · Alex Wilkins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mason Williams assists)
At lock: projected NAU 62.68–92.92 UK
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3610379847
- Winner: Kentucky (100%)
- Spread: NAU +35.5 covers (67%)
- Total: Over 155.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)29
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NAU 62.68–92.92 UK · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUK +2.9 off · NAU -2.7 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UK
- RecordUK 3-1 · NAU 0-4
- Market priorBlended 83% toward UK -30.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAU | 37 | 40 | 77 |
| UK | 45 | 33 | 78 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3664–66
Justin McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Malachi Moreno assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0167–66
Chris Komin makes 27-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4167–68
Justin McBride makes 14-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1370–68
Ryan Abelman makes 30-foot three point jumper (Chris Komin assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:4372–68
Lucas Toukam makes 0-foot tip in dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2472–70
Mason Williams makes 12-foot jumper (Malachi Moreno assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5174–70
Chris Komin makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4974–72
Milan Momcilovic makes 11-foot jumper (Alex Wilkins assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4974–73
Milan Momcilovic makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2277–73
Cade Bennett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Komin assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1477–75
Mason Williams makes 20-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0277–78
Alex Wilkins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mason Williams assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NAU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Toukam F · #1 | 37 | 18 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 5-5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
 D. Anderson F · #4 | 21 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Komin G · #2 | 39 | 25 | 9-16 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
 M. Majerle G · #7 | 15 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 R. Abelman G · #11 | 40 | 9 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 Z. Tanner F · #33 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Green F · #6 | 17 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 L. Wieskamp F · #3 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Dorsey G · #0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Bennett G · #22 | 24 | 9 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 N. Keutcha C · #31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Mautz G · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. George G · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Peterson G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 JT Amundsen G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 77 | 27-52 | 13-26 | 10-12 | 32 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 9 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NAU | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-52 | 31-55 |
| FG% | 52 | 56 |
| 3PT | 13-26 | 11-26 |
| 3P% | 50 | 42 |
| FT | 10-12 | 5-6 |
| FT% | 83 | 83 |
| REB | 32 | 20 |
| OR | 8 | 1 |
| DR | 24 | 19 |
| AST | 18 | 21 |
| STL | 2 | 4 |
| BLK | 0 | 5 |
| TO | 10 | 4 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 10 | 4 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 8 | 11 |
| FBPs | 5 | 21 |
| PIP | 26 | 28 |
| PF | 9 | 13 |
| LL | 5 | 13 |
| LC | 13 | 13 |
| LPCT | 41 | 51 |
At lock NAU 62.68–92.92 UK · UK by 30.2 pts vs NAU +35.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
HitL. Toukam · NAU
37 MIN · 18 PTSO. N'Diaye · UK
26 MIN · 11 PTSChris Komin · NAU
STAT · 39 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-16 FG · 5-8 3PTMilan Momcilovic · UK
STAT · 35 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-11 FG · 3-9 3PTMalachi Moreno · UK
STAT · 34 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-8 FG · 2-3 FTAlex Wilkins · UK
STAT · 32 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-10 FG · 2-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Arizona vs Kentucky pick result · Nov 13, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NAU +35.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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