Rider Broncs at Villanova Wildcats
Final · ESPN+
62–99Last shot · Wade Chiddick makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
At lock: projected RID 56.57–88.77 VILL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 7:29 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3375214811
- Winner: Villanova (100%)
- Spread: RID +36.5 covers (64%)
- Total: Under 145.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
RID 56.57–88.77 VILL · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseVILL +5.6 off · RID -4.2 off, shrunk 33%
- Home field+3.4 pts to VILL
- RecordVILL 4-1 · RID 1-5
- Market priorBlended 83% toward VILL -33.5 / total 144.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RID | 23 | 39 | 62 |
| VILL | 42 | 57 | 99 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:1956–87
Rich Brisco makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0956–89
Carter Fisk makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 3:2856–90
Elijah Crawford makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2856–91
Elijah Crawford makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1658–91
Bryce Baker makes 13-foot floating jump shot (Nasir Washington assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:5458–92
Carter Fisk makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4859–92
Khalil Farmer makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4860–92
Khalil Farmer makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3060–94
Adam Oumiddoch makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0660–96
Carter Fisk makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3462–96
Nasir Washington makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3562–99
Wade Chiddick makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| RID | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 R. Brisco F · #13 | 30 | 14 | 7-17 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
 M. Butler G · #10 | 23 | 9 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
 Ty Bevins G · #5 | 25 | 8 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 4-7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 B. Baker G · #55 | 30 | 9 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 K. Farmer G · #22 | 29 | 9 | 2-10 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 S. Obe F · #0 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Wylie F · #14 | 12 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 H. Simmons Jr. F · #23 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 S. Avegah Semey C · #8 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Presley G · #24 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JJ Washington G · #11 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Connelly G · #9 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 N. Washington G · #3 | 15 | 8 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 R. Rosa G · #2 | 20 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Team | 62 | 25-65 | 2-13 | 10-20 | 33 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RID | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-65 | 32-70 |
| FG% | 38 | 46 |
| 3PT | 2-13 | 10-28 |
| 3P% | 15 | 36 |
| FT | 10-20 | 25-31 |
| FT% | 50 | 81 |
| REB | 33 | 54 |
| OR | 10 | 19 |
| DR | 23 | 35 |
| AST | 9 | 20 |
| STL | 9 | 9 |
| BLK | 8 | 7 |
| TO | 13 | 13 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 13 | 13 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 11 | 16 |
| FBPs | 5 | 9 |
| PIP | 34 | 44 |
| PF | 22 | 16 |
| LL | 0 | 37 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock RID 56.57–88.77 VILL · VILL by 32.2 pts vs RID +36.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissR. Brisco · RID
30 MIN · 14 PTSD. Royal · VILL
28 MIN · 21 PTSJake Fiegen · VILL
STAT · 29 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-9 FG · 4-8 3PTKwame Evans Jr. · VILL
STAT · 21 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-8 FG · 0-1 3PTAdam Oumiddoch · VILL
STAT · 18 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-12 FG · 2-6 3PTTyler Perkins · VILL
STAT · 28 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-7 FG · 2-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Rider vs Villanova pick result · Nov 14, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is RID +36.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day