Mercer Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers
Final · ESPN+
61–75Last shot · Martin Somerville misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected MER 64.27–87.15 WVU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 10:54 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3392139525
- Winner: West Virginia (98%)
- Spread: MER +26.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 151.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MER 64.27–87.15 WVU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseWVU +4.8 off · MER +3.5 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to WVU
- RecordWVU 3-0 · MER 2-3
- Market priorBlended 84% toward WVU -24.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MER | 28 | 33 | 61 |
| WVU | 31 | 44 | 75 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0153–68
Shane Cherry makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2755–68
Shane Cherry makes 10-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0555–70
Seydou Traore makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2857–70
Derek Goodman makes 18-foot jumper (Shane Cherry assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:5957–71
Javan Buchanan makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:5957–72
Javan Buchanan makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2057–73
Javan Buchanan makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2057–74
Javan Buchanan makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0759–74
Dawson Barr makes 17-foot jumper (Shane Cherry assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4759–75
Javan Buchanan makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3660–75
Shane Cherry makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3661–75
Shane Cherry makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MER | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Mabor Makoi F · #35 | 19 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
 K. Boyd F · #18 | 36 | 10 | 5-11 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
 D. Goodman G · #23 | 30 | 5 | 2-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
 B. Shoulders G · #11 | 29 | 9 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 Q. Perkins II G · #3 | 30 | 9 | 3-14 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 S. Mayhugh F · #22 | 19 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
 P. Padegimas F · #12 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Steele F · #25 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 S. Cherry G · #2 | 19 | 20 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 6-6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 D. Barr G · #0 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 R. Cate G · #5 | 9 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Kovacevic F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Jackson G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Lyttle G · #16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 KJ Lamonte G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Koveos G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 61 | 22-61 | 6-28 | 11-12 | 34 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 20 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MER | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-61 | 23-58 |
| FG% | 36 | 40 |
| 3PT | 6-28 | 7-27 |
| 3P% | 21 | 26 |
| FT | 11-12 | 22-30 |
| FT% | 92 | 73 |
| REB | 34 | 41 |
| OR | 14 | 16 |
| DR | 20 | 25 |
| AST | 10 | 11 |
| STL | 6 | 8 |
| BLK | 1 | 3 |
| TO | 14 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 14 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 10 |
| FBPs | 4 | 2 |
| PIP | 26 | 32 |
| PF | 17 | 14 |
| LL | 0 | 20 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 93 |
At lock MER 64.27–87.15 WVU · WVU by 22.9 pts vs MER +26.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Mabor Makoi · MER
19 MIN · 2 PTSB. Lorient · WVU
27 MIN · 8 PTSShane Cherry · MER
STAT · 19 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-13 FG · 2-6 3PTFinley Bizjack · WVU
STAT · 33 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-12 FG · 2-7 3PTMiles Sadler · WVU
STAT · 28 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-11 FG · 1-5 3PTJavan Buchanan · WVU
STAT · 17 MIN · 12 PTS · 2-7 FG · 8-10 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mercer vs West Virginia pick result · Nov 12, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MER +26.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day