Yale Bulldogs at UCF Knights
Final · ESPN+
75–87Last shot · Arturo Dean misses 23-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected YALE 72.48–80.92 UCF
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1009967890
- Winner: UCF (77%)
- Spread: YALE +9.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 152.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
YALE 72.48–80.92 UCF · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUCF +21.0 off · YALE +15.4 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UCF
- RecordUCF 2-0 · YALE 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward UCF -9.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| YALE | 42 | 33 | 75 |
| UCF | 39 | 48 | 87 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3366–78
Riley Fox makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jack Sullivan assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4766–80
Isaiah Malone makes 8-foot floating jump shot
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 3:0866–82
Elijah Hulsewe makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5669–82
Riley Fox makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trevor Mullin assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:5370–82
Riley Fox makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 1:4070–83
Arturo Dean makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3070–85
Arturo Dean makes layup (Riley Kugel assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2472–85
Trevor Mullin makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:2473–85
Trevor Mullin makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5473–87
Elijah Hulsewe makes layup (Arturo Dean assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4874–87
Trevor Mullin makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4875–87
Trevor Mullin makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| YALE | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Ogunyemi F · #12 | 25 | 6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
 J. Sullivan F · #7 | 31 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 |
 R. Fox F · #9 | 35 | 24 | 9-14 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 |
 J. Brathwaite G · #3 | 31 | 11 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 T. Mullin G · #11 | 35 | 17 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 C. May F · #21 | 9 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 J. Oware C · #13 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Wallace G · #0 | 29 | 14 | 6-13 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Basima G · #22 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Wooley F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Bolte F · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Winkler F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Louridas G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Loving G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Tsai G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 75 | 27-60 | 10-26 | 11-13 | 34 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| YALE | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-60 | 31-68 |
| FG% | 45 | 46 |
| 3PT | 10-26 | 5-23 |
| 3P% | 38 | 22 |
| FT | 11-13 | 20-24 |
| FT% | 85 | 83 |
| REB | 34 | 39 |
| OR | 8 | 13 |
| DR | 26 | 26 |
| AST | 10 | 14 |
| STL | 0 | 6 |
| BLK | 2 | 4 |
| TO | 11 | 2 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 2 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| PTS OFF TO | 0 | 16 |
| FBPs | 12 | 13 |
| PIP | 22 | 42 |
| PF | 20 | 15 |
| LL | 13 | 16 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 54 | 42 |
At lock YALE 72.48–80.92 UCF · UCF by 8.4 pts vs YALE +9.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. Ogunyemi · YALE
25 MIN · 6 PTSI. Malone · UCF
20 MIN · 8 PTSDior Johnson · UCF
STAT · 34 MIN · 28 PTS · 9-17 FG · 2-5 3PTRiley Fox · YALE
STAT · 35 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-14 FG · 4-6 3PTTrevor Mullin · YALE
STAT · 35 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-12 FG · 2-4 3PTCourtney Wallace · YALE
STAT · 29 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-13 FG · 2-8 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Yale vs UCF pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is YALE +9.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day