North Florida Ospreys at Miami Hurricanes
Final · ACC Network
51–89Last shot · Eddie Placer misses layup
At lock: projected UNF 66.46–96.04 MIA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 975574009
- Winner: Miami (99%)
- Spread: UNF +34.5 covers (67%)
- Total: Under 162.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)23
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UNF 66.46–96.04 MIA · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMIA +10.0 off · UNF +6.4 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MIA
- RecordMIA 2-1 · UNF 1-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward MIA -35.5 / total 165.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNF | 25 | 26 | 51 |
| MIA | 44 | 45 | 89 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:5443–76
Robert Miller III makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:4143–78
Dante Allen makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:2245–78
Eddie Placer makes 12-foot step back jumpshot
- FT2nd Half 4:3045–79
Egor Ryzhov makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:2347–79
JR Bartelus makes layup (Elijah Elliott assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:1347–81
Egor Ryzhov makes 2-foot dunk (Acaden Lewis assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2949–81
Kent Jackson makes layup (Eddie Placer assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5351–81
JR Bartelus makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1551–83
Nick Dorn makes 7-foot floating jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5251–85
Acaden Lewis makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4451–87
Egor Ryzhov makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2751–89
Egor Ryzhov makes layup (Dante Allen assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UNF | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Bryant Jr. F · #21 | 23 | 5 | 2-11 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
 JR Bartelus G · #13 | 24 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 M. Watkins G · #0 | 33 | 6 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
 K. Jackson G · #11 | 28 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 E. Elliott G · #5 | 25 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 I. Brown F · #8 | 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
 A. Begaj F · #12 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Kohn G · #35 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Perry G · #4 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 BJ Plummer G · #1 | 20 | 10 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 E. Placer G · #3 | 25 | 12 | 4-14 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 E. Bergantino G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Jacobs G · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Lee G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 51 | 21-67 | 6-17 | 3-8 | 34 | 10 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNF | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-67 | 38-83 |
| FG% | 31 | 46 |
| 3PT | 6-17 | 5-27 |
| 3P% | 35 | 19 |
| FT | 3-8 | 8-14 |
| FT% | 38 | 57 |
| REB | 34 | 62 |
| OR | 9 | 23 |
| DR | 25 | 39 |
| AST | 10 | 18 |
| STL | 9 | 10 |
| BLK | 4 | 8 |
| TO | 17 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 17 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 21 |
| FBPs | 9 | 17 |
| PIP | 26 | 64 |
| PF | 16 | 8 |
| LL | 0 | 38 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 96 |
At lock UNF 66.46–96.04 MIA · MIA by 29.6 pts vs UNF +34.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
MissA. Bryant Jr. · UNF
23 MIN · 5 PTSC. Gaskins · MIA
23 MIN · 12 PTSMalik Reneau · MIA
STAT · 18 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-10 FG · 1-3 3PTShelton Henderson · MIA
STAT · 26 MIN · 14 PTS · 7-14 FG · 0-1 3PTEddie Placer · UNF
STAT · 25 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-14 FG · 2-4 3PTBJ Plummer · UNF
STAT · 20 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-6 FG · 2-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
North Florida vs Miami pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UNF +34.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day