Merrimack Warriors at UAlbany Great Danes
Final · ESPN+
73–60Last shot · Zacharie Matulu misses 7-foot pullup jump shot
At lock: projected MRMK 67.69–66.17 UALB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1571271098
- Winner: UAlbany (74%)
- Score error (both teams)20
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MRMK 67.69–66.17 UALB · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUALB +8.8 off · MRMK +1.0 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UALB
- RecordUALB 2-1 · MRMK 1-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward MRMK -2.5 / total 134.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 30 | 43 | 73 |
| UALB | 26 | 34 | 60 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:3664–52
Denver Anglin makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1664–53
U-Mier Graham makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:0566–53
Jacob Moore makes 4-foot dunk (Denver Anglin assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:3267–53
Ayden Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3268–53
Ayden Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2468–55
Ollie Engen makes 21-foot turnaround jump shot (Zacharie Matulu assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2868–58
U-Mier Graham makes 24-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0370–58
Ayden Johnson makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4770–60
Ollie Engen makes 6-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:4171–60
Jeremiah Anderson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3372–60
AJ Lesburt Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3373–60
AJ Lesburt Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MRMK | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Brogna F · #20 | 31 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 E. Wilborn F · #5 | 13 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
 A. Johnson G · #3 | 28 | 13 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 AJ Lesburt Jr. G · #33 | 35 | 25 | 8-17 | 7-12 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
 D. Anglin G · #2 | 28 | 11 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 JP Skoric F · #10 | 13 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Moore F · #14 | 22 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
 D. Veillette F · #0 | 6 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 R. Westfield G · #13 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Anderson G · #1 | 20 | 6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
 D. Munro F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Guerra G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Vladimir Soqui Urbano G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Q. Kwasniak G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Dorset G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 73 | 23-50 | 12-26 | 15-21 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 13 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MRMK | UALB | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-50 | 24-53 |
| FG% | 46 | 45 |
| 3PT | 12-26 | 4-14 |
| 3P% | 46 | 29 |
| FT | 15-21 | 8-12 |
| FT% | 71 | 67 |
| REB | 21 | 37 |
| OR | 8 | 15 |
| DR | 13 | 22 |
| AST | 11 | 13 |
| STL | 12 | 7 |
| BLK | 6 | 5 |
| TO | 10 | 21 |
| TTO | 0 | 3 |
| ToTO | 10 | 21 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 21 | 10 |
| FBPs | 14 | 7 |
| PIP | 22 | 30 |
| PF | 13 | 14 |
| LL | 15 | 2 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 90 | 2 |
At lock MRMK 67.69–66.17 UALB · MRMK by 1.5 pts vs UALB +2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Brogna · MRMK
31 MIN · 7 PTSU. Graham · UALB
36 MIN · 16 PTSAJ Lesburt Jr. · MRMK
STAT · 35 MIN · 25 PTS · 8-17 FG · 7-12 3PTOllie Engen · UALB
STAT · 37 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-12 FG · 2-3 3PTAyden Johnson · MRMK
STAT · 28 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-7 FG · 2-4 3PTTyler Jones · UALB
STAT · 27 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-7 FG · 0-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Merrimack vs UAlbany pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UALB +2.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day