UNC Greensboro Spartans at Elon Phoenix
Final · FloSports
65–74Last shot · Cameron Grant misses 27-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UNCG 73.05–80.98 ELON
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1205391977
- Winner: Elon (76%)
- Spread: UNCG +9.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 153.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UNCG 73.05–80.98 ELON · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseELON +15.2 off · UNCG +21.3 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ELON
- RecordELON 2-0 · UNCG 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward ELON -8.5 / total 150.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNCG | 22 | 43 | 65 |
| ELON | 39 | 35 | 74 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:0356–66
Raúl Villar makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:0356–67
Raúl Villar makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5459–67
RJ Greer makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dionte Neal assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:2859–68
Josh Dalton makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2859–69
Josh Dalton makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1862–69
RJ Greer makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dionte Neal assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5862–71
Bryson Cokley makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4964–71
Dionte Neal makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 1:4965–71
Dionte Neal makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 0:2765–72
Korbin Dixon makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2765–73
Korbin Dixon makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1265–74
Bryson Cokley makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UNCG | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 V. Collins Jr. F · #33 | 22 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 RJ Greer G · #14 | 32 | 18 | 6-10 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 J. Mani G · #6 | 28 | 16 | 7-13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
 C. Grant G · #4 | 35 | 11 | 3-15 | 1-10 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
 D. Neal G · #0 | 36 | 16 | 7-12 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 Z. Fitch F · #11 | 19 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 C. Barnes G · #24 | 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Mishak G · #3 | 19 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 C. LaFrentz F · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Bynum F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Beljan F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Giant G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Bailey II G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Stacker G · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 65 | 24-57 | 8-28 | 9-11 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNCG | ELON | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-57 | 27-58 |
| FG% | 42 | 47 |
| 3PT | 8-28 | 4-18 |
| 3P% | 29 | 22 |
| FT | 9-11 | 16-21 |
| FT% | 82 | 76 |
| REB | 22 | 45 |
| OR | 3 | 14 |
| DR | 19 | 31 |
| AST | 8 | 11 |
| STL | 6 | 3 |
| BLK | 2 | 2 |
| TO | 10 | 11 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 10 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 13 |
| FBPs | 8 | 4 |
| PIP | 24 | 32 |
| PF | 18 | 12 |
| LL | 1 | 17 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 1 | 92 |
At lock UNCG 73.05–80.98 ELON · ELON by 7.9 pts vs UNCG +9.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitV. Collins Jr. · UNCG
22 MIN · 2 PTSJ. Dalton · ELON
30 MIN · 14 PTSRJ Greer · UNCG
STAT · 32 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-10 FG · 4-7 3PTJon Mani · UNCG
STAT · 28 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-13 FG · 2-4 3PTDionte Neal · UNCG
STAT · 36 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-12 FG · 1-2 3PTIsaiah Mbeng · ELON
STAT · 22 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-7 FG · 2-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UNC Greensboro vs Elon pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UNCG +9.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day