East Texas A&M Lions at Rice Owls
Final · ESPN+
72–71Last shot · Jaxson Thompson misses 13-foot jumper
At lock: projected ETAM 71.11–74.58 RICE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3659835327
- Winner: Rice (62%)
- Spread: RICE -3.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 145.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ETAM 71.11–74.58 RICE · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseRICE +20.8 off · ETAM +19.0 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to RICE
- RecordRICE 1-1 · ETAM 2-0
- Market priorBlended 71% toward RICE -3.5 / total 145.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETAM | 37 | 35 | 72 |
| RICE | 32 | 39 | 71 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4966–59
Mohamed Diakite makes 11-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 3:4266–60
Eternity Eguagie makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4266–61
Eternity Eguagie makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2667–61
Bo Aldridge makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2668–61
Bo Aldridge makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2068–64
Carmelo Adkins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Thompson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5368–67
Carmelo Adkins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Thompson assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:1669–67
Alonzo Dodd makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0372–67
Mohamed Diakite makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alonzo Dodd assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:4172–68
Carmelo Adkins makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3772–70
Jaxson Thompson makes 5-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:3772–71
Jaxson Thompson makes free throw 1 of 1
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ETAM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Diakite F · #5 | 34 | 23 | 9-17 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
 B. Aldridge F · #1 | 27 | 16 | 4-17 | 2-5 | 6-7 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 J. Ford F · #24 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
 G. Škorjanc G · #4 | 32 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
 A. Dodd G · #8 | 29 | 14 | 4-15 | 3-10 | 3-7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
 A. Hot F · #21 | 26 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
 T. Duchamp F · #20 | 25 | 8 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
 M. Carrio F · #10 | 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 K. Tolbert G · #12 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Markovic F · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Dinu F · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Y. Vidal F · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Robinson G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Adlam G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Phelps G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 72 | 24-67 | 10-28 | 14-24 | 54 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 25 | 29 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ETAM | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-67 | 24-67 |
| FG% | 36 | 36 |
| 3PT | 10-28 | 9-27 |
| 3P% | 36 | 33 |
| FT | 14-24 | 14-20 |
| FT% | 58 | 70 |
| REB | 54 | 41 |
| OR | 25 | 19 |
| DR | 29 | 22 |
| AST | 20 | 13 |
| STL | 9 | 6 |
| BLK | 3 | 6 |
| TO | 15 | 10 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 5 |
| FBPs | 12 | 4 |
| PIP | 24 | 26 |
| PF | 20 | 19 |
| LL | 8 | 11 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 65 | 24 |
At lock ETAM 71.11–74.58 RICE · 0.2 pts over 145.5 · 49% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Diakite · ETAM
34 MIN · 23 PTSE. Eguagie · RICE
29 MIN · 8 PTSBo Aldridge · ETAM
STAT · 27 MIN · 16 PTS · 4-17 FG · 2-5 3PTAlonzo Dodd · ETAM
STAT · 29 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-15 FG · 3-10 3PTJaxson Thompson · RICE
STAT · 29 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-11 FG · 0-3 3PTCarmelo Adkins · RICE
STAT · 22 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-7 FG · 4-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
East Texas A&M vs Rice pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 145.5, with a 49% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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