Georgia Southern Eagles at UCF Knights
Final · ESPN+
70–84Last shot · Dior Johnson misses 18-foot jumper
At lock: projected GASO 72.11–91.50 UCF
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1510578882
- Winner: UCF (97%)
- Spread: GASO +23.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Over 162.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
GASO 72.11–91.50 UCF · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUCF +5.2 off · GASO +1.8 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UCF
- RecordUCF 4-0 · GASO 1-3
- Market priorBlended 83% toward UCF -22.5 / total 164.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 27 | 43 | 70 |
| UCF | 36 | 48 | 84 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:5563–76
Truman Claytor IV makes 17-foot step back jumpshot
- FT2nd Half 3:3363–77
Dior Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3363–78
Dior Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5363–80
Cayden Vasko makes layup (Arturo Dean assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:5364–80
Dallas Gardner makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5365–80
Dallas Gardner makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3065–82
Lewis Walker makes 7-foot floating jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0767–82
Dallas Gardner makes layup (Jeromy Davis assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4767–84
Dior Johnson makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:2168–84
Eltramon Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2169–84
Eltramon Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4770–84
Eltramon Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| GASO | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Crissman F · #5 | 15 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 E. Smith F · #21 | 35 | 13 | 4-16 | 2-11 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 T. Claytor IV F · #9 | 36 | 15 | 5-16 | 3-10 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
 D. Gardner G · #2 | 36 | 25 | 7-21 | 2-6 | 9-10 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
 J. Williams G · #0 | 26 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 E. James F · #33 | 8 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 E. Savane F · #12 | 17 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 J. Davis G · #13 | 18 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 J. Crawford G · #6 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Dixon G · #11 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T. Sotirov F · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Henderson G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Williams G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Williams Jr. G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Clay NA · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 70 | 22-70 | 10-39 | 16-20 | 35 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GASO | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-70 | 33-63 |
| FG% | 31 | 52 |
| 3PT | 10-39 | 3-14 |
| 3P% | 26 | 21 |
| FT | 16-20 | 15-18 |
| FT% | 80 | 83 |
| REB | 35 | 47 |
| OR | 12 | 9 |
| DR | 23 | 38 |
| AST | 9 | 15 |
| STL | 4 | 4 |
| BLK | 2 | 4 |
| TO | 5 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 5 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 8 |
| FBPs | 13 | 14 |
| PIP | 22 | 52 |
| PF | 20 | 17 |
| LL | 0 | 17 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock GASO 72.11–91.50 UCF · UCF by 19.4 pts vs GASO +22.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitC. Crissman · GASO
15 MIN · 6 PTSI. Malone · UCF
22 MIN · 12 PTSDallas Gardner · GASO
STAT · 36 MIN · 25 PTS · 7-21 FG · 2-6 3PTDior Johnson · UCF
STAT · 35 MIN · 25 PTS · 10-17 FG · 0-1 3PTArturo Dean · UCF
STAT · 20 MIN · 21 PTS · 9-12 FG · 1-2 3PTTruman Claytor IV · GASO
STAT · 36 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-16 FG · 3-10 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
GA Southern vs UCF pick result · Nov 13, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is GASO +22.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day