NCAABFinalCam Henderson Center

Toledo Rockets at Marshall Thundering Herd

Final · ESPN+

81–76

ToledoMarshall

Final

Last shot · Emmanuel Manyuon misses 24-foot three point jumper

Toledo Rockets

1-2 · W1

365 PF · 386 PA

Final

Marshall Thundering Herd

1-1 · L3

313 PF · 304 PA

TOL 40%MRSH 60%

At lock: projected TOL 77.54–80.38 MRSH

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2212413884

Missed · off by 8

Most typical sim

TOL 78 – MRSH 81

Final

TOL 81 – MRSH 76

Winner: Marshall (59%)
Spread: MRSH -2.5 covers (52%)
Total: Under 158.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)8

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

TOL 77.54–80.38 MRSH · Low confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
MRSH +18.9 off · TOL +13.0 off, shrunk 11%
Home field
+3.4 pts to MRSH
Record
MRSH 1-1 · TOL 1-2
Market prior
Blended 85% toward MRSH -1.5 / total 158.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	T
TOL	27	54	81
MRSH	38	38	76

Scoring plays

FT2nd Half 3:4171–69
Sean Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1873–69
Sean Jones makes layup (Angel Montas Jr. assists)
JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4573–71
Bryce Slay makes 12-foot jumper
JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4875–71
Angel Montas Jr. makes 6-foot jumper
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3375–73
Noah Otshudi makes layup
FT2nd Half 1:3375–74
Noah Otshudi makes free throw 1 of 1
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5977–74
Mynor Strong makes layup
FT2nd Half 0:2478–74
Angel Montas Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1378–76
Noah Otshudi makes layup
FT2nd Half 0:1379–76
Angel Montas Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
FT2nd Half 0:1380–76
Angel Montas Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
FT2nd Half 0:0481–76
Sean Jones makes free throw 2 of 2

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

TOL	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	TO	STL	BLK	OREB	DREB	PF
J. Ouwinga F · #32	32	11	4-10	0-2	3-3	6	1	2	0	0	1	5	0
A. Parks C · #25	24	9	4-9	0-1	1-5	8	0	0	1	1	5	3	2
W. James Jr. G · #11	15	2	1-2	0-0	0-3	3	0	2	0	0	1	2	3
M. Strong G · #5	37	20	6-13	1-6	7-7	3	4	1	7	1	1	2	3
S. Jones G · #1	35	11	3-12	0-2	5-6	2	9	0	1	0	1	1	1
R. Porter F · #24	1	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Barron F · #23	20	5	2-4	1-1	0-4	3	2	0	2	0	0	3	5
C. Riddle F · #10	6	1	0-1	0-0	1-2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Allen G · #7	5	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Montas Jr. G · #9	25	20	8-14	1-3	3-5	5	1	0	2	0	0	5	0
T. Nwokolo F · #0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
M. Mattucci G · #3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
M. Johnson G · #2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Team		81	29-66	3-15	20-35	38	17	5	13	2	11	27	14

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TOL	MRSH
FG	29-66	29-70
FG%	44	41
3PT	3-15	10-28
3P%	20	36
FT	20-35	8-12
FT%	57	67
REB	38	49
OR	11	15
DR	27	34
AST	17	13
STL	13	3
BLK	2	2
TO	5	16
TTO	0	0
ToTO	5	16
TECH	0	1
TECH	0	1
FLAG	0	0
PTS OFF TO	22	9
FBPs	16	4
PIP	42	32
PF	14	25
LL	5	14
LC	14	14
LPCT	22	73

Computer pick · Spread

MRSH -2.5

51%

At lock TOL 77.54–80.38 MRSH · MRSH by 2.8 pts vs MRSH -2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

J. Ouwinga · TOL
32 MIN · 11 PTS
C. Langdon · MRSH
18 MIN · 3 PTS
Bryce Slay · MRSH
STAT · 39 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-16 FG · 5-10 3PT
Noah Otshudi · MRSH
STAT · 29 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-18 FG · 1-3 3PT
Mynor Strong · TOL
STAT · 37 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-13 FG · 1-6 3PT
Angel Montas Jr. · TOL
STAT · 25 MIN · 20 PTS · 8-14 FG · 1-3 3PT

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Toledo vs Marshall pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MRSH -2.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day