Alabama State Hornets at Texas A&M Aggies
Final · SECN+
66–97Last shot · Josh Irving misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected ALST 69.19–93.31 TA&M
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 1:46 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 366434509
- Winner: Texas A&M (98%)
- Spread: ALST +27.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Over 162.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ALST 69.19–93.31 TA&M · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTA&M +0.0 off · ALST +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TA&M
- Market priorBlended 86% toward TA&M -32.5 / total 163.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALST | 29 | 37 | 66 |
| TA&M | 44 | 53 | 97 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:1762–79
Paul McMillan IV makes 4-foot floating jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1862–81
Jordan Pope makes driving layup (Tyshawn Archie assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:1862–82
Jordan Pope makes free throw 1 of 1
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:3962–84
Jalen Shelley makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Tyshawn Archie assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5562–87
Tyshawn Archie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lukas Walls assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:2562–89
Tyshawn Archie makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1062–92
Jalen Shelley makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jordan Pope assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3062–94
Tyshawn Archie makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5663–94
Paul McMillan IV makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4763–96
Jalen Reece makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3066–96
Noah Benny makes 27-foot three point jumper (JaSteven Walker assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:2466–97
Josh Irving makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ALST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Scott F · #11 | 18 | 4 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
 I. Barganier F · #23 | 19 | 8 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
 M. James G · #10 | 35 | 16 | 5-11 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 D. Bonds G · #7 | 20 | 4 | 2-12 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
 P. McMillan IV G · #34 | 37 | 17 | 5-16 | 3-5 | 4-5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 T. Hampton F · #33 | 17 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
 M. Dixon F · #2 | 17 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
 J. Walker F · #25 | 9 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Powell G · #4 | 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
H H. Stewart G · #0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 N. Benny G · #3 | 14 | 8 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 J. Rogers G · #22 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 P. Mensah F · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Brown G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Miller G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 66 | 22-67 | 8-24 | 14-19 | 44 | 11 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 28 | 32 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ALST | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-67 | 30-62 |
| FG% | 33 | 48 |
| 3PT | 8-24 | 8-23 |
| 3P% | 33 | 35 |
| FT | 14-19 | 29-48 |
| FT% | 74 | 60 |
| REB | 44 | 43 |
| OR | 16 | 14 |
| DR | 28 | 29 |
| AST | 11 | 13 |
| STL | 5 | 13 |
| BLK | 1 | 6 |
| TO | 25 | 11 |
| TTO | 6 | 0 |
| ToTO | 25 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 30 |
| FBPs | 3 | 18 |
| PIP | 26 | 42 |
| PF | 32 | 18 |
| LL | 0 | 33 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock ALST 69.19–93.31 TA&M · TA&M by 24.1 pts vs ALST +27.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Scott · ALST
18 MIN · 4 PTSJ. Shelley · TA&M
24 MIN · 14 PTSPJ Haggerty · TA&M
STAT · 27 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-14 FG · 1-3 3PTPaul McMillan IV · ALST
STAT · 37 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-16 FG · 3-5 3PTJordan Pope · TA&M
STAT · 31 MIN · 17 PTS · 4-9 FG · 3-8 3PTMike James · ALST
STAT · 35 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-11 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Alabama St vs Texas A&M pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ALST +27.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day