Vermont Catamounts at Fairfield Stags
Final · ESPN+
79–67Last shot · Will Davies misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected UVM 69.64–69.57 FAIR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 190750455
- Winner: Fairfield (51%)
- Spread: FAIR +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 140.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UVM 69.64–69.57 FAIR · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseFAIR +0.0 off · UVM +17.6 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to FAIR
- RecordFAIR 0-1 · UVM 1-1
- Market priorBlended 72% toward UVM -1.5 / total 139.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVM | 38 | 41 | 79 |
| FAIR | 25 | 42 | 67 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:2668–57
Peyton Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0371–57
Will Davies makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khalil Badru assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 3:3671–59
Declan Wucherpfennig makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3471–61
Jah Hatchett makes driving layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:3773–61
Momo Nkugwa makes 2-foot dunk
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:2273–63
Peyton Smith makes 2-foot dunk (Declan Wucherpfennig assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0275–63
John Broom makes layup (Will Davies assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:4177–63
Will Davies makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3077–65
Declan Wucherpfennig makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:2678–65
John Broom makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2679–65
John Broom makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1779–67
Jah Hatchett makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UVM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N. Barnett F · #34 | 29 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 G. Yalden F · #19 | 25 | 12 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
 W. Davies G · #12 | 34 | 21 | 9-13 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
 D. Yepdo G · #3 | 30 | 16 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 J. Broom G · #5 | 29 | 10 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
 S. Gbiegba F · #24 | 10 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 M. Nkugwa G · #1 | 17 | 10 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 K. Badru G · #4 | 19 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 D. Glazkov G · #55 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Masic F · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Brunetto F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Johns G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Romich G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Chism G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Clemons G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 79 | 31-58 | 8-20 | 9-14 | 39 | 11 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UVM | FAIR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 31-58 | 24-61 |
| FG% | 53 | 39 |
| 3PT | 8-20 | 4-25 |
| 3P% | 40 | 16 |
| FT | 9-14 | 15-16 |
| FT% | 64 | 94 |
| REB | 39 | 30 |
| OR | 12 | 11 |
| DR | 27 | 19 |
| AST | 11 | 9 |
| STL | 2 | 7 |
| BLK | 2 | 5 |
| TO | 14 | 8 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 8 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 15 |
| FBPs | 2 | 10 |
| PIP | 38 | 34 |
| PF | 16 | 15 |
| LL | 18 | 2 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 95 | 2 |
At lock UVM 69.64–69.57 FAIR · UVM by 0.1 pts vs FAIR +1.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissN. Barnett · UVM
29 MIN · 6 PTSP. Smith · FAIR
27 MIN · 8 PTSDeclan Wucherpfennig · FAIR
STAT · 38 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-14 FG · 1-3 3PTWill Davies · UVM
STAT · 34 MIN · 21 PTS · 9-13 FG · 2-4 3PTDarrel Yepdo · UVM
STAT · 30 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-13 FG · 2-5 3PTCole Edelen · FAIR
STAT · 26 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-9 FG · 2-8 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Vermont vs Fairfield pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is FAIR +1.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day