Northeastern Huskies at Virginia Cavaliers
Final · ACC Network
72–97Last shot · Christian Harmon misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected NE 64.74–94.62 UVA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 876697492
- Winner: Virginia (100%)
- Spread: NE +34.5 covers (66%)
- Total: Under 159.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NE 64.74–94.62 UVA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUVA +32.8 off · NE +18.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UVA
- RecordUVA 2-0 · NE 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward UVA -33.5 / total 159.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 31 | 41 | 72 |
| UVA | 38 | 59 | 97 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:2362–89
Elijah Gertrude makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3464–89
Rashad King makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3666–89
Damian Jung makes layup (Dorian Grosber assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0466–91
Jan Vide makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Nolan Adekunle assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:4967–91
Dorian Grosber makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4968–91
Dorian Grosber makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2968–93
Carter Lang makes driving layup (Martin Carrere assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4270–93
Louis Bond makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:3170–95
Martin Carrere makes 4-foot dunk (Carter Lang assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:3272–95
Damian Jung makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 0:2672–96
Owen Odom makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2672–97
Owen Odom makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NE | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 B. Young F · #30 | 16 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 D. Grosber G · #8 | 32 | 7 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
 L. Bond G · #23 | 36 | 23 | 9-16 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 M. Loughnane G · #4 | 35 | 8 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 R. King G · #9 | 34 | 26 | 8-14 | 1-5 | 9-9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 S. Baptiste F · #24 | 9 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Jung F · #1 | 4 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 P. Pinter C · #13 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 L. Koelsch C · #54 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Houlihan G · #11 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Williams G · #2 | 19 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 J. Icitovic F · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Goodwin G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Newton G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 72 | 24-52 | 6-23 | 18-22 | 27 | 11 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NE | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-52 | 34-63 |
| FG% | 46 | 54 |
| 3PT | 6-23 | 12-31 |
| 3P% | 26 | 39 |
| FT | 18-22 | 17-21 |
| FT% | 82 | 81 |
| REB | 27 | 37 |
| OR | 5 | 11 |
| DR | 22 | 26 |
| AST | 11 | 26 |
| STL | 7 | 12 |
| BLK | 3 | 4 |
| TO | 19 | 14 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 22 |
| FBPs | 15 | 23 |
| PIP | 22 | 44 |
| PF | 19 | 21 |
| LL | 5 | 27 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 16 | 71 |
At lock NE 64.74–94.62 UVA · UVA by 29.9 pts vs NE +34.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
HitB. Young · NE
16 MIN · 4 PTSN. Adekunle · UVA
25 MIN · 3 PTSRashad King · NE
STAT · 34 MIN · 26 PTS · 8-14 FG · 1-5 3PTLouis Bond · NE
STAT · 36 MIN · 23 PTS · 9-16 FG · 3-7 3PTSam Lewis · UVA
STAT · 30 MIN · 20 PTS · 5-11 FG · 2-7 3PTChance Mallory · UVA
STAT · 27 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-12 FG · 3-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Northeastern vs Virginia pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NE +34.5, with a 57% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day