Southern Utah Thunderbirds at High Point Panthers
Final · ESPN+
59–88Last shot · Jalik Nicholls makes 5-foot dunk
At lock: projected SUU 69.75–85.81 HPU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 10:54 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2604939344
- Winner: High Point (92%)
- Spread: SUU +21.5 covers (68%)
- Total: Over 153.5 (62%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SUU 69.75–85.81 HPU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseHPU +1.5 off · SUU +20.3 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to HPU
- RecordHPU 4-0 · SUU 3-1
- Market priorBlended 83% toward HPU -22.5 / total 158.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SUU | 31 | 28 | 59 |
| HPU | 38 | 50 | 88 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:4955–74
Dylan Sanders makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 3:5355–75
Jason Rivera-Torres makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5355–76
Jason Rivera-Torres makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:3555–78
Jason Rivera-Torres makes 4-foot dunk
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0057–78
Jalik Nicholls makes layup (Jaiden Feroah assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3457–80
Caden Miller makes layup (Jason Rivera-Torres assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:1657–82
Frankquon Sherman makes 3-foot dunk (Trey Pearson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4457–84
Frankquon Sherman makes layup (Trey Pearson assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:1457–86
Jared Grey makes 4-foot dunk (Jason Rivera-Torres assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3157–87
Alexandros Alexakis makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3157–88
Alexandros Alexakis makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:1559–88
Jalik Nicholls makes 5-foot dunk
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SUU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Barclay F · #24 | 25 | 10 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 JaJ. Nicholls F · #7 | 15 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 J. Feroah F · #35 | 32 | 8 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
 C. Degraffenried G · #33 | 16 | 8 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Sanders G · #5 | 27 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
 D. Smith F · #6 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jal. Nicholls F · #1 | 3 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Riak F · #11 | 19 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 M. Protsenko C · #32 | 5 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 R. Davis G · #3 | 24 | 1 | 0-8 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 B. Johnson G · #0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Z. Kidd G · #4 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Brown G · #10 | 9 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 D. Hall G · #2 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Breland G · #22 | 18 | 10 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Team | 59 | 22-57 | 6-23 | 9-19 | 36 | 16 | 25 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SUU | HPU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-57 | 35-72 |
| FG% | 39 | 49 |
| 3PT | 6-23 | 3-25 |
| 3P% | 26 | 12 |
| FT | 9-19 | 15-24 |
| FT% | 47 | 63 |
| REB | 36 | 46 |
| OR | 17 | 21 |
| DR | 19 | 25 |
| AST | 16 | 13 |
| STL | 7 | 12 |
| BLK | 4 | 5 |
| TO | 25 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 25 | 14 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 28 |
| FBPs | 6 | 29 |
| PIP | 30 | 64 |
| PF | 21 | 20 |
| LL | 8 | 31 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 36 | 59 |
At lock SUU 69.75–85.81 HPU · HPU by 16.1 pts vs SUU +21.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: SUU +21.5 locked at 68% when posted
MissC. Barclay · SUU
25 MIN · 10 PTSI. Garrett · HPU
24 MIN · 12 PTSJason Rivera-Torres · HPU
STAT · 24 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-14 FG · 1-2 3PTCJ Brown · HPU
STAT · 18 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-11 FG · 0-3 3PTTrey Pearson · HPU
STAT · 23 MIN · 11 PTS · 5-8 FG · 0-2 3PTAnthony Breland · SUU
STAT · 18 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-9 FG · 2-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Southern Utah vs High Point pick result · Nov 12, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SUU +21.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day