Mercer Bears at Virginia Tech Hokies
Final · ACCNX
67–96Last shot · Shane Cherry makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected MER 68.49–86.39 VT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3917849188
- Winner: Virginia Tech (94%)
- Spread: MER +20.5 covers (59%)
- Total: Over 154.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MER 68.49–86.39 VT · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseVT +21.8 off · MER +28.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to VT
- RecordVT 2-0 · MER 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward VT -20.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MER | 24 | 43 | 67 |
| VT | 47 | 49 | 96 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:4758–84
Quinton Perkins II makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2658–87
Butta Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amani Hansberry assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0961–87
Quinton Perkins II makes 24-foot three point jumper (KJ Lamonte assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:4761–88
Amani Hansberry makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:4061–90
Amani Hansberry makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2563–90
Makoi Mabor Makoi makes layup (KJ Lamonte assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2763–93
Isaiah Elohim makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ethan Copeland assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1065–93
KJ Lamonte makes 8-foot floating jump shot
- FT2nd Half 1:5365–94
Isaiah Elohim makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2765–96
Isaiah Elohim makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:0766–96
Keelan Steele makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2367–96
Shane Cherry makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MER | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Mabor Makoi F · #35 | 27 | 8 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 D. Goodman G · #23 | 19 | 9 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 KJ Lamonte G · #1 | 32 | 21 | 6-10 | 2-2 | 7-9 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 B. Shoulders G · #11 | 26 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 Q. Perkins II G · #3 | 26 | 8 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 K. Boyd F · #18 | 23 | 12 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
 P. Padegimas F · #12 | 9 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
 K. Steele F · #25 | 7 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 S. Cherry G · #2 | 20 | 4 | 1-8 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 D. Barr G · #0 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Cate G · #5 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Kovacevic F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Mayhugh F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Jackson G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Lyttle G · #16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Koveos G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 67 | 22-54 | 6-20 | 17-27 | 34 | 11 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MER | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-54 | 34-70 |
| FG% | 41 | 49 |
| 3PT | 6-20 | 8-22 |
| 3P% | 30 | 36 |
| FT | 17-27 | 20-26 |
| FT% | 63 | 77 |
| REB | 34 | 39 |
| OR | 10 | 14 |
| DR | 24 | 25 |
| AST | 11 | 16 |
| STL | 1 | 8 |
| BLK | 2 | 3 |
| TO | 18 | 4 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 18 | 4 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 6 | 28 |
| FBPs | 2 | 15 |
| PIP | 30 | 46 |
| PF | 21 | 21 |
| LL | 0 | 31 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 98 |
At lock MER 68.49–86.39 VT · VT by 17.9 pts vs MER +20.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Mabor Makoi · MER
27 MIN · 8 PTSM. Heide · VT
19 MIN · 6 PTSAmani Hansberry · VT
STAT · 27 MIN · 23 PTS · 9-13 FG · 1-2 3PTKJ Lamonte · MER
STAT · 32 MIN · 21 PTS · 6-10 FG · 2-2 3PTBen Hammond · VT
STAT · 26 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-11 FG · 2-7 3PTJaylen Curry · VT
STAT · 30 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-15 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mercer vs Virginia Tech pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MER +20.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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