Fresno State Bulldogs at UC San Diego Tritons
Final · ESPN+
65–81Last shot · Bradey Henige makes layup
At lock: projected FRES 71.49–81.19 UCSD
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:42 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3884293950
- Winner: UC San Diego (80%)
- Spread: FRES +10.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 151.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FRES 71.49–81.19 UCSD · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUCSD +12.8 off · FRES +22.8 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UCSD
- RecordUCSD 2-0 · FRES 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward UCSD -10.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 36 | 29 | 65 |
| UCSD | 32 | 49 | 81 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3256–65
Ross Candelino makes 4-foot turnaround jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2856–68
Leo Beath makes 24-foot three point jumper (Treysen Eaglestaff assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1056–70
Rahmir Barno makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5158–70
Bradey Henige makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4058–72
Rahmir Barno makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 2:4058–73
Rahmir Barno makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2961–73
Dragos Lungu makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1161–76
Leo Beath makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rahmir Barno assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5463–76
Bradey Henige makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3863–79
Tom Beattie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rahmir Barno assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3163–81
Rahmir Barno makes 11-foot floating jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1765–81
Bradey Henige makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| FRES | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 B. Henige F · #42 | 28 | 18 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
R R. Fabrega Urpina G · #10 | 39 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
 B. Amuneke G · #1 | 27 | 12 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 D. Lungu G · #77 | 33 | 18 | 6-16 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 R. Candelino G · #30 | 36 | 14 | 5-17 | 4-15 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
M M. Vuckovic F · #11 | 11 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
R R. Parsley F · #0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Fall C · #35 | 12 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
K KJ Perry G · #7 | 7 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Q. Rhymes G · #5 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
C C. Schroeder F · #28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
A A. Granger F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Y Y. Kesse-Beda F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Zulemie G · #80 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 65 | 26-68 | 9-37 | 4-5 | 40 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 24 | 12 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FRES | UCSD | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-68 | 33-65 |
| FG% | 38 | 51 |
| 3PT | 9-37 | 9-25 |
| 3P% | 24 | 36 |
| FT | 4-5 | 6-10 |
| FT% | 80 | 60 |
| REB | 40 | 38 |
| OR | 16 | 11 |
| DR | 24 | 27 |
| AST | 14 | 11 |
| STL | 4 | 8 |
| BLK | 5 | 1 |
| TO | 13 | 8 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 13 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 14 |
| FBPs | 5 | 21 |
| PIP | 34 | 48 |
| PF | 12 | 13 |
| LL | 7 | 18 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 35 | 63 |
At lock FRES 71.49–81.19 UCSD · UCSD by 9.7 pts vs FRES +10.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissB. Henige · FRES
28 MIN · 18 PTSL. Beath · UCSD
34 MIN · 21 PTSDragos Lungu · FRES
STAT · 33 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-16 FG · 2-7 3PTTreysen Eaglestaff · UCSD
STAT · 30 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-11 FG · 3-7 3PTRahmir Barno · UCSD
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-11 FG · 2-5 FTRoss Candelino · FRES
STAT · 36 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-17 FG · 4-15 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Fresno St vs UC San Diego pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is FRES +10.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day