North Florida Ospreys at California Baptist Lancers
Final · ESPN+
71–63Last shot · Ethan Duncan misses 23-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UNF 74.21–81.29 CBU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 1:46 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1837674695
- Winner: CA Baptist (73%)
- Spread: UNF +8.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 155.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)22
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UNF 74.21–81.29 CBU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCBU +0.0 off · UNF +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CBU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward CBU -10.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNF | 33 | 38 | 71 |
| CBU | 31 | 32 | 63 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 8:1061–54
Jordan Muller makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:4861–56
Terry Coner Jr. makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:2963–56
Mason Watkins makes 3-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:4963–58
Jordan Muller makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:2765–58
Mason Watkins makes layup
- FT2nd Half 4:1765–59
Terry Coner Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:1765–60
Terry Coner Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:5367–60
Ayuba Bryant Jr. makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0269–60
Mason Watkins makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3569–63
Jonas Zilinskas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Muller assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:1070–63
Kent Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1071–63
Kent Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UNF | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Bryant Jr. F · #21 | 28 | 11 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
 M. Watkins G · #0 | 32 | 13 | 6-10 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
 K. Jackson G · #11 | 28 | 15 | 4-15 | 2-10 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 E. Elliott G · #5 | 22 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 M. Lee G · #2 | 23 | 11 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
 I. Brown F · #8 | 9 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 JR Bartelus G · #13 | 26 | 12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 BJ Plummer G · #1 | 14 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 E. Placer G · #3 | 18 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 A. Begaj F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Bergantino G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Kohn G · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Perry G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Jacobs G · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 71 | 27-57 | 6-24 | 11-18 | 41 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNF | CBU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-57 | 21-60 |
| FG% | 47 | 35 |
| 3PT | 6-24 | 4-27 |
| 3P% | 25 | 15 |
| FT | 11-18 | 17-22 |
| FT% | 61 | 77 |
| REB | 41 | 31 |
| OR | 9 | 7 |
| DR | 32 | 24 |
| AST | 8 | 10 |
| STL | 6 | 10 |
| BLK | 5 | 1 |
| TO | 18 | 15 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 18 | 15 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 20 | 14 |
| FBPs | 13 | 10 |
| PIP | 42 | 20 |
| PF | 17 | 16 |
| LL | 11 | 3 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 81 | 5 |
At lock UNF 74.21–81.29 CBU · CBU by 7.1 pts vs UNF +8.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Bryant Jr. · UNF
28 MIN · 11 PTSR. D'Amelio · CBU
19 MIN · 4 PTSKent Jackson · UNF
STAT · 28 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-15 FG · 2-10 3PTJordan Muller · CBU
STAT · 30 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-10 FG · 1-5 3PTMason Watkins · UNF
STAT · 32 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-10 FG · 1-4 3PTTerry Coner Jr. · CBU
STAT · 31 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-9 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
North Florida vs CA Baptist pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UNF +8.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day