Cal State Fullerton Titans at South Dakota Coyotes
Final · Summit League Network
87–85Last shot · Matthew Willenborg makes 26-foot three point jumper (Joshua Ward assists)
At lock: projected CSUF 85.57–87.65 SDAK
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2150797571
- Winner: South Dakota (57%)
- Spread: SDAK -1.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 173.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CSUF 85.57–87.65 SDAK · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSDAK +19.3 off · CSUF +11.4 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SDAK
- RecordSDAK 1-2 · CSUF 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward SDAK -1.5 / total 175.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSUF | 49 | 38 | 87 |
| SDAK | 41 | 44 | 85 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:0177–75
Vince Buzelis makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:4277–77
Cade Kelderman makes layup (Ethan Kizer assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:4177–78
Josiah Dotzler makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2480–78
Christian Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marley Zeller assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2980–80
Vince Buzelis makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 2:2980–81
Vince Buzelis makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 1:3680–82
Vince Buzelis makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3680–83
Vince Buzelis makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:1582–83
Matthew Willenborg makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4582–85
Vince Buzelis makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3884–85
Joshua Ward makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0087–85
Matthew Willenborg makes 26-foot three point jumper (Joshua Ward assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CSUF | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Stynes G · #42 | 17 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 M. Willenborg G · #21 | 32 | 22 | 9-20 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
 M. Bell G · #11 | 15 | 9 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
 C. Williams G · #7 | 29 | 8 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 J. Ward G · #5 | 35 | 19 | 5-16 | 3-5 | 6-7 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 |
 K. De Luna F · #24 | 11 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 R. Reynolds F · #23 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Ponga G · #0 | 21 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 M. Zeller G · #3 | 21 | 9 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 B. Nunn G · #8 | 17 | 9 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
S S. Tresvant G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Beckett G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Quinlan G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. White G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Howard Jr. G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Jenkins G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. McConnell G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 87 | 30-69 | 17-34 | 10-14 | 35 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 27 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CSUF | SDAK | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 30-69 | 26-58 |
| FG% | 43 | 45 |
| 3PT | 17-34 | 7-26 |
| 3P% | 50 | 27 |
| FT | 10-14 | 26-37 |
| FT% | 71 | 70 |
| REB | 35 | 43 |
| OR | 6 | 10 |
| DR | 29 | 33 |
| AST | 19 | 13 |
| STL | 7 | 6 |
| BLK | 5 | 2 |
| TO | 13 | 17 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 17 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 18 |
| FBPs | 9 | 14 |
| PIP | 22 | 38 |
| PF | 27 | 16 |
| LL | 17 | 11 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 54 | 43 |
At lock CSUF 85.57–87.65 SDAK · SDAK by 2.1 pts vs SDAK -1.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Stynes · CSUF
17 MIN · 1 PTSS. van Bussel · SDAK
17 MIN · 8 PTSVince Buzelis · SDAK
STAT · 32 MIN · 26 PTS · 7-9 FG · 12-15 FTMatthew Willenborg · CSUF
STAT · 32 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-20 FG · 4-9 3PTJoshua Ward · CSUF
STAT · 35 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-16 FG · 3-5 3PTJosiah Dotzler · SDAK
STAT · 23 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-10 FG · 0-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Fullerton vs South Dakota pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SDAK -1.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day