Cal State Fullerton Titans at San Diego State Aztecs
Final · YouTube
78–102Last shot · Anthony Ponga misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected CSUF 70.10–84.76 SDSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 1:46 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2167575190
- Winner: San Diego St (90%)
- Spread: CSUF +16.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 154.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CSUF 70.10–84.76 SDSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSDSU +0.0 off · CSUF +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SDSU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward SDSU -13.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSUF | 43 | 35 | 78 |
| SDSU | 54 | 48 | 102 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:0371–87
Rockwell Reynolds makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:5671–89
Tae Simmons makes 9-foot floating jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:4373–89
Rockwell Reynolds makes 11-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:1973–92
Isaiah Sy makes 23-foot three point jumper (Elzie Harrington assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4773–95
Latrell Davis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luca Vincini assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3576–95
Christian Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rockwell Reynolds assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1476–97
Luca Vincini makes 16-foot jumper (David Torresani assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0776–99
Chance Gladden makes 13-foot floating jump shot
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:1976–101
Luca Vincini makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 1:1077–101
Bailey Nunn makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1078–101
Bailey Nunn makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0978–102
David Torresani makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CSUF | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Stynes G · #42 | 21 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 M. Willenborg G · #21 | 23 | 12 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
 M. Bell G · #11 | 17 | 11 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Williams G · #7 | 20 | 12 | 4-9 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Ward G · #5 | 31 | 22 | 8-17 | 1-3 | 5-8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 R. Reynolds F · #23 | 17 | 5 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 A. Ponga G · #0 | 22 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 H. Beckett G · #13 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 G. Howard Jr. G · #10 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Zeller G · #3 | 18 | 5 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 B. Nunn G · #8 | 27 | 11 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 K. De Luna F · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
S S. Tresvant G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Quinlan G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. White G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Jenkins G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. McConnell G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 78 | 28-69 | 7-32 | 15-24 | 28 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CSUF | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-69 | 33-68 |
| FG% | 41 | 49 |
| 3PT | 7-32 | 8-23 |
| 3P% | 22 | 35 |
| FT | 15-24 | 28-34 |
| FT% | 63 | 82 |
| REB | 28 | 50 |
| OR | 11 | 18 |
| DR | 17 | 32 |
| AST | 12 | 20 |
| STL | 6 | 6 |
| BLK | 3 | 6 |
| TO | 9 | 15 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 9 | 15 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 11 | 8 |
| FBPs | 9 | 7 |
| PIP | 34 | 36 |
| PF | 25 | 21 |
| LL | 6 | 25 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 8 | 82 |
At lock CSUF 70.10–84.76 SDSU · SDSU by 14.7 pts vs CSUF +16.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Stynes · CSUF
21 MIN · 0-3 FGT. Simmons · SDSU
23 MIN · 14 PTSLatrell Davis · SDSU
STAT · 29 MIN · 25 PTS · 8-13 FG · 5-8 3PTJoshua Ward · CSUF
STAT · 31 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-17 FG · 1-3 3PTBear Cherry · SDSU
STAT · 23 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-8 FG · 5-6 FTElzie Harrington · SDSU
STAT · 23 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-9 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Fullerton vs San Diego St pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CSUF +16.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day