North Dakota State Bison at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
Final · ESPN+
80–91Last shot · Amir Danforth misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected NDSU 79.55–78.86 CSUB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2116948143
- Winner: N Dakota St (53%)
- Spread: CSUB +2.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 157.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NDSU 79.55–78.86 CSUB · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCSUB +13.0 off · NDSU +7.7 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CSUB
- RecordCSUB 2-0 · NDSU 1-3
- Market priorBlended 85% toward NDSU -2.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDSU | 32 | 48 | 80 |
| CSUB | 38 | 53 | 91 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0571–80
Kjay Bradley makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5074–80
Riley Massey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nagy assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3274–83
Jaden Alexander makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kjay Bradley assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2476–83
Rob Diaz III makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:1376–84
Kjay Bradley makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1376–85
Kjay Bradley makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0477–85
Max Iversen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0478–85
Max Iversen makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:5778–87
Tom Koppens makes 3-foot dunk (Kjay Bradley assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3480–87
Riley Massey makes layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:3080–89
Kristian Payne makes 4-foot dunk (Kjay Bradley assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:1780–91
Bryce Cofield makes 3-foot dunk (Kristian Payne assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NDSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Tate F · #3 | 15 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
 A. Nagy F · #44 | 25 | 14 | 5-9 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 M. Iversen G · #4 | 35 | 20 | 6-13 | 5-9 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 R. Diaz III G · #0 | 30 | 17 | 7-15 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 M. Bell Jr. G · #1 | 22 | 5 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 K. Poom F · #23 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 A. Danforth G · #13 | 10 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 R. Massey G · #2 | 26 | 15 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Harper G · #14 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 C. Smith G · #7 | 19 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
 C. Stack F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Junker F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Schoenfeld F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Paz Vazquez G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Stefonowicz G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Robison G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 80 | 28-65 | 15-34 | 9-12 | 29 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NDSU | CSUB | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-65 | 33-57 |
| FG% | 43 | 58 |
| 3PT | 15-34 | 10-23 |
| 3P% | 44 | 43 |
| FT | 9-12 | 15-17 |
| FT% | 75 | 88 |
| REB | 29 | 35 |
| OR | 10 | 6 |
| DR | 19 | 29 |
| AST | 15 | 21 |
| STL | 3 | 6 |
| BLK | 2 | 9 |
| TO | 10 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 10 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 8 | 16 |
| FBPs | 4 | 27 |
| PIP | 24 | 44 |
| PF | 17 | 14 |
| LL | 7 | 11 |
| LC | 11 | 11 |
| LPCT | 23 | 64 |
At lock NDSU 79.55–78.86 CSUB · NDSU by 0.7 pts vs CSUB +2.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitK. Tate · NDSU
15 MIN · 2 PTSP. Ivancic · CSUB
22 MIN · 7 PTSJaden Alexander · CSUB
STAT · 36 MIN · 41 PTS · 14-21 FG · 9-14 3PTMax Iversen · NDSU
STAT · 35 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-13 FG · 5-9 3PTRob Diaz III · NDSU
STAT · 30 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-15 FG · 1-3 3PTRiley Massey · NDSU
STAT · 26 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-8 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Dakota St vs Bakersfield pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CSUB +2.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day