Maine Black Bears at Rhode Island Rams
Final · ESPN+
65–71Last shot · Darius Lopes misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected ME 60.76–80.02 URI
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 5:30 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1875008076
- Winner: Rhode Island (95%)
- Spread: ME +20.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 140.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ME 60.76–80.02 URI · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseURI +12.0 off · ME +3.2 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to URI
- RecordURI 3-0 · ME 1-3
- Market priorBlended 84% toward URI -20.5 / total 139.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ME | 28 | 37 | 65 |
| URI | 23 | 48 | 71 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:5258–59
DeAndre Williams makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2658–61
Dylan Williamson makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1558–64
Dylan Williamson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jahmere Tripp assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4458–67
Dylan Williamson makes 23-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3260–67
Darius Lopes makes layup (Ace Flagg assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3860–68
Dylan Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3060–69
Matas Deniusas makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2561–69
Darius Lopes makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2562–69
Darius Lopes makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1662–70
Matas Deniusas makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1265–70
Darius Lopes makes 26-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:0965–71
Jason Fontenet II makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ME | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Gribben F · #10 | 22 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 A. Flagg F · #11 | 21 | 7 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 D. Lopes G · #8 | 21 | 13 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 V. Garcia Adsten G · #1 | 24 | 7 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2-8 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
 D. Williams G · #2 | 34 | 13 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 5-5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
 W. Triestman F · #15 | 13 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 Y. Bamba F · #6 | 23 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 A. Evans F · #5 | 18 | 10 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 H. Franz G · #23 | 16 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 C. Crawford G · #4 | 8 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 W. Waddles F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Ojuri F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Byther F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Faubert F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Bedard G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 65 | 20-44 | 7-17 | 18-26 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ME | URI | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-44 | 20-56 |
| FG% | 45 | 36 |
| 3PT | 7-17 | 9-21 |
| 3P% | 41 | 43 |
| FT | 18-26 | 22-28 |
| FT% | 69 | 79 |
| REB | 30 | 38 |
| OR | 3 | 12 |
| DR | 27 | 26 |
| AST | 12 | 10 |
| STL | 4 | 11 |
| BLK | 3 | 0 |
| TO | 18 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 18 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 11 | 22 |
| FBPs | 7 | 8 |
| PIP | 24 | 20 |
| PF | 22 | 20 |
| LL | 9 | 9 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 53 | 35 |
At lock ME 60.76–80.02 URI · URI by 19.3 pts vs ME +20.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitK. Gribben · ME
22 MIN · 2 PTSM. Deniusas · URI
24 MIN · 12 PTSDylan Williamson · URI
STAT · 33 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-16 FG · 5-8 3PTDarius Lopes · ME
STAT · 21 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-7 FG · 3-5 3PTDeAndre Williams · ME
STAT · 34 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-10 FG · 0-2 3PTJason Fontenet II · URI
STAT · 31 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-8 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Maine vs Rhode Island pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ME +20.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day