NCAABFinalAbessinio Court at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena

Long Island University Sharks at Florida Atlantic Owls

Final · ESPN+

60–74

Long IslandFAU

Final

Last shot · Kamari Jones misses 14-foot jumper

Long Island University Sharks

0-1 · L5

304 PF · 375 PA

Final

Florida Atlantic Owls

1-0 · W2

318 PF · 310 PA

LIU 20%FAU 80%

At lock: projected LIU 71.36–80.86 FAU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 760270026

Winner called · off by 19

Most typical sim

LIU 72 – FAU 81

Final

LIU 60 – FAU 74

Winner: FAU (80%)
Spread: LIU +10.5 covers (54%)
Total: Under 153.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)19

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

LIU 71.36–80.86 FAU · Low confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
FAU +0.0 off · LIU +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
Home field
+3.4 pts to FAU
Market prior
Blended 86% toward FAU -10.5 / total 154.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	T
LIU	29	31	60
FAU	37	37	74

Scoring plays

JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:2155–60
Daquan Davis makes 25-foot three point jumper
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:0055–62
Felipe Quinones makes layup
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:2155–64
Felipe Quinones makes layup
JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5857–64
Kamari Jones makes 18-foot jumper
DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:2957–66
Kanaan Carlyle makes 2-foot dunk
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:4857–68
Felipe Quinones makes layup
FT2nd Half 3:3158–68
Deshawn Jean-Charles makes free throw 1 of 2
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5458–70
Josh Harris makes layup
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1458–72
Felipe Quinones makes layup
FT2nd Half 1:0059–72
Deshawn Jean-Charles makes free throw 1 of 2
FT2nd Half 1:0060–72
Deshawn Jean-Charles makes free throw 2 of 2
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3360–74
Kieran Mullen makes layup

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

LIU	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	TO	STL	BLK	OREB	DREB	PF
T. Bowles F · #10	29	4	1-1	0-0	2-4	11	2	0	0	1	3	8	3
J. Howard F · #1	5	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5
V. Allette G · #0	24	9	3-9	0-2	3-3	1	5	3	3	0	0	1	2
D. Jean-Charles G · #7	29	8	2-8	0-5	4-5	3	0	2	1	0	0	3	3
D. Davis G · #5	28	16	7-15	1-2	1-2	3	1	6	1	0	0	3	2
J. Johnson F · #4	13	0	0-3	0-1	0-0	2	0	2	0	0	0	2	1
R. Bewley F · #8	16	2	0-1	0-1	2-4	6	1	0	1	5	2	4	3
M. Bewley F · #3	15	6	3-3	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	0	4	0	5	1
J. Skinner G · #11	8	0	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	0	1	0	0	0	2	3
J. Pickett G · #2	7	0	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. Jones G · #24	26	13	5-11	3-7	0-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1
T. Triplett Jr. F · #44	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
X. Li F · #34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
M. Ndlovu-Fraser G · #6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Team		60	22-55	4-20	12-19	38	9	16	6	10	6	32	26

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LIU	FAU
FG	22-55	25-62
FG%	40	40
3PT	4-20	1-10
3P%	20	10
FT	12-19	23-31
FT%	63	74
REB	38	44
OR	6	11
DR	32	33
AST	9	7
STL	6	9
BLK	10	2
TO	16	10
TTO	0	1
ToTO	16	10
TECH	0	0
TECH	0	0
FLAG	0	0
PTS OFF TO	6	17
FBPs	11	17
PIP	24	42
PF	26	18
LL	0	14
LC	0	0
LPCT	0	96

Computer pick · Spread

LIU +10.5

52%

At lock LIU 71.36–80.86 FAU · FAU by 9.5 pts vs LIU +10.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

T. Bowles · LIU
29 MIN · 4 PTS
M. Porter-Brown · FAU
21 MIN · 4 PTS
Kanaan Carlyle · FAU
STAT · 34 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-18 FG · 1-5 3PT
Daquan Davis · LIU
STAT · 28 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-15 FG · 1-2 3PT
Josh Harris · FAU
STAT · 29 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-12 FG · 0-1 3PT
Felipe Quinones · FAU
STAT · 32 MIN · 14 PTS · 7-12 FG · 6 REB

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Long Island vs FAU pick result · Nov 2, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is LIU +10.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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