Southern Jaguars at TCU Horned Frogs
Final · ESPN+
54–106Last shot · Jack Wegman misses layup
At lock: projected SOU 64.71–87.79 TCU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 48092435
- Winner: TCU (98%)
- Spread: SOU +26.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Over 152.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)29
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SOU 64.71–87.79 TCU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTCU +23.0 off · SOU +19.0 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TCU
- RecordTCU 2-0 · SOU 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward TCU -26.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOU | 28 | 26 | 54 |
| TCU | 49 | 57 | 106 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:2449–95
Ricards Aizpurs makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0652–95
Armonii Benjamin makes 28-foot three point jumper (Daniel Dormu assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3052–97
Ricards Aizpurs makes driving layup (Tanner Toolson assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:2952–98
Ricards Aizpurs makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 1:5652–99
Ryan Hunt makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2352–100
Gavin Sykes makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2352–101
Gavin Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1652–102
Tanner Toolson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1652–103
Tanner Toolson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5052–106
Gavin Murphy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tanner Toolson assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3853–106
Justin Page makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3854–106
Justin Page makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SOU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Bell C · #10 | 11 | 7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Hunter G · #13 | 13 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 D. Parish G · #2 | 17 | 7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 L. Larvadain G · #11 | 7 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Page G · #5 | 19 | 6 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 A. Hall F · #4 | 18 | 8 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
 R. King F · #23 | 11 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 I. Olajuwon C · #35 | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 N. Boyde C · #24 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Benjamin G · #9 | 9 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Greer G · #8 | 9 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 K. Demory G · #6 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Dormu G · #3 | 23 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
 S. Van Dorn Jr. G · #7 | 16 | 5 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 M. Ferguson G · #1 | 16 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Amboree G · #0 | 15 | 6 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Team | 54 | 19-55 | 2-11 | 14-18 | 30 | 10 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SOU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-55 | 32-65 |
| FG% | 35 | 49 |
| 3PT | 2-11 | 13-27 |
| 3P% | 18 | 48 |
| FT | 14-18 | 29-34 |
| FT% | 78 | 85 |
| REB | 30 | 43 |
| OR | 13 | 19 |
| DR | 17 | 24 |
| AST | 10 | 26 |
| STL | 8 | 16 |
| BLK | 6 | 4 |
| TO | 22 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 22 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 28 |
| FBPs | 8 | 27 |
| PIP | 22 | 36 |
| PF | 25 | 19 |
| LL | 7 | 54 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 11 | 86 |
At lock SOU 64.71–87.79 TCU · TCU by 23.1 pts vs SOU +26.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissL. Bell · SOU
11 MIN · 7 PTSDJ Thomas · TCU
27 MIN · 11 PTSMicah Robinson · TCU
STAT · 25 MIN · 18 PTS · 5-6 FG · 4-5 3PTXavier Edmonds · TCU
STAT · 22 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-10 FG · 1-1 3PTTanner Toolson · TCU
STAT · 25 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-8 FG · 2-3 3PTGavin Sykes · TCU
STAT · 16 MIN · 11 PTS · 2-7 FG · 2-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Southern vs TCU pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SOU +26.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day