Lindenwood Lions at TCU Horned Frogs
Final · ESPN+
59–98Last shot · RJ Chastang makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected LIN 64.05–89.03 TCU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 266201482
- Winner: TCU (98%)
- Spread: LIN +28.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Under 154.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LIN 64.05–89.03 TCU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTCU +0.0 off · LIN +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TCU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward TCU -29.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | 37 | 22 | 59 |
| TCU | 57 | 41 | 98 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:5647–91
DJ Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:2849–91
Malek Archie makes 1-foot dunk (Xavier Spencer assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3951–91
Noah Taitz makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 3:2051–92
Ryan Hunt makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1553–92
Malek Archie makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5653–94
Ricards Aizpurs makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5755–94
Malek Archie makes layup (Noah Taitz assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:2055–95
DJ Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2055–96
DJ Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1358–96
Noah Taitz makes 23-foot three point jumper (Xavier Spencer assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:3558–98
Tanner Toolson makes 1-foot dunk (Ricards Aizpurs assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:1059–98
RJ Chastang makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LIN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Mason F · #10 | 23 | 10 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 1-7 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
 M. Diop F · #21 | 20 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
 S. Green G · #3 | 13 | 6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 D. Clay G · #14 | 23 | 3 | 1-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 X. Spencer G · #11 | 30 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 D. Rollins F · #42 | 17 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 P. Seithel C · #41 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 M. Lukanoski C · #23 | 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Elliott G · #2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 RJ Chastang G · #0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Archie G · #1 | 27 | 18 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
 N. Taitz G · #7 | 25 | 12 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 M. Diouf F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. White G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Robinson G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 59 | 24-60 | 5-21 | 6-21 | 37 | 10 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LIN | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-60 | 30-64 |
| FG% | 40 | 47 |
| 3PT | 5-21 | 10-19 |
| 3P% | 24 | 53 |
| FT | 6-21 | 28-38 |
| FT% | 29 | 74 |
| REB | 37 | 46 |
| OR | 16 | 18 |
| DR | 21 | 28 |
| AST | 10 | 19 |
| STL | 6 | 15 |
| BLK | 7 | 3 |
| TO | 20 | 13 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 20 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 8 | 28 |
| FBPs | 13 | 16 |
| PIP | 34 | 40 |
| PF | 23 | 22 |
| LL | 2 | 45 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 2 | 97 |
At lock LIN 64.05–89.03 TCU · TCU by 25.0 pts vs LIN +28.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Mason · LIN
23 MIN · 10 PTSX. Edmonds · TCU
13 MIN · 9 PTSMicah Robinson · TCU
STAT · 26 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-7 FG · 2-3 3PTDJ Thomas · TCU
STAT · 28 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-11 FG · 2-3 3PTMalek Archie · LIN
STAT · 27 MIN · 18 PTS · 9-15 FG · 0-1 FTBrock Harding · TCU
STAT · 26 MIN · 17 PTS · 4-10 FG · 2-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lindenwood vs TCU pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LIN +28.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day