Wichita State Shockers at USC Trojans
Final · CW
86–93Last shot · Rodney Rice makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected WICH 75.92–81.27 USC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2380475666
- Winner: USC (67%)
- Spread: WICH +6.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 156.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
WICH 75.92–81.27 USC · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUSC +11.6 off · WICH +22.3 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to USC
- RecordUSC 2-0 · WICH 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward USC -7.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WICH | 45 | 41 | 86 |
| USC | 43 | 50 | 93 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 1:3581–86
William Berg makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5883–86
Jordan Frison makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:4483–87
Rodney Rice makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4483–88
Rodney Rice makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2583–89
Aaron Hunkin-Claytor makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2384–89
Jordan Frison makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2284–90
Alijah Arenas makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2284–91
Alijah Arenas makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0685–91
William Berg makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0686–91
William Berg makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0386–92
Rodney Rice makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0386–93
Rodney Rice makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| WICH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Battie F · #8 | 30 | 10 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
 W. Berg C · #44 | 21 | 17 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 7-10 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
 K. Giles G · #3 | 28 | 8 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 B. Heard G · #1 | 25 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Long G · #11 | 29 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 E. Okorafor F · #20 | 19 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
 J. Valencia F · #2 | 10 | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
 J. Frison G · #5 | 20 | 17 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 J. Ighovodja G · #12 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Gray Jr. G · #9 | 18 | 18 | 5-8 | 5-8 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 N. Hill F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Thengvall F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Malonga C · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Jones G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 P. Couisnard G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Rathan-Mayes G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 TJ Williams G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 86 | 26-54 | 9-19 | 25-36 | 38 | 13 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 30 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WICH | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-54 | 27-61 |
| FG% | 48 | 44 |
| 3PT | 9-19 | 2-14 |
| 3P% | 47 | 14 |
| FT | 25-36 | 37-42 |
| FT% | 69 | 88 |
| REB | 38 | 34 |
| OR | 12 | 11 |
| DR | 26 | 23 |
| AST | 13 | 14 |
| STL | 7 | 8 |
| BLK | 2 | 6 |
| TO | 20 | 10 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 20 | 10 |
| TECH | 2 | 1 |
| TECH | 2 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 11 | 24 |
| FBPs | 11 | 15 |
| PIP | 30 | 36 |
| PF | 30 | 26 |
| LL | 11 | 7 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 29 | 58 |
At lock WICH 75.92–81.27 USC · USC by 5.3 pts vs WICH +6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. Battie · WICH
30 MIN · 10 PTSA. Ratliff · USC
33 MIN · 10 PTSRodney Rice · USC
STAT · 39 MIN · 32 PTS · 7-17 FG · 1-4 3PTAlijah Arenas · USC
STAT · 39 MIN · 30 PTS · 9-18 FG · 0-2 3PTMichael Gray Jr. · WICH
STAT · 18 MIN · 18 PTS · 5-8 FG · 5-8 3PTWilliam Berg · WICH
STAT · 21 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-7 FG · 7-10 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wichita St vs USC pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is WICH +6.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day