VCU Rams at Memphis Tigers
Final · ESPN+
88–89Last shot · Nyk Lewis misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
At lock: projected VCU 80.27–78.66 MEM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1769939631
- Winner: VCU (56%)
- Spread: MEM +2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 158.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
VCU 80.27–78.66 MEM · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMEM +10.4 off · VCU +11.3 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MEM
- RecordMEM 2-0 · VCU 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward VCU -2.5 / total 159.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | 48 | 40 | 88 |
| MEM | 44 | 45 | 89 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:5882–80
Blake Harper makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:5883–80
Blake Harper makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:4183–81
Tylik Weeks makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:4183–82
Tylik Weeks makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1485–82
Nyk Lewis makes layup
- FT2nd Half 3:3185–83
Tylik Weeks makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:0285–84
Jayden Reid makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3387–84
Ahmad Nowell makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1987–87
Jayden Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rihards Vavers assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4988–87
Nyk Lewis makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0588–88
Jayden Reid makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0588–89
Jayden Reid makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| VCU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Djokovic F · #17 | 29 | 8 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
 M. Belle F · #8 | 16 | 7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 N. Lewis G · #5 | 30 | 14 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 6-8 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 B. Harper G · #1 | 36 | 22 | 7-14 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 B. Jennings G · #0 | 20 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 T. Alston F · #10 | 30 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 S. Jackson G · #2 | 6 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Nowell G · #4 | 22 | 17 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
 T. Ward G · #15 | 11 | 9 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 S. Plisnic F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Ross F · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Wyche F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Tillery G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Ralph-Beyer G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 88 | 26-54 | 13-24 | 23-27 | 28 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 26 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| VCU | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-54 | 27-54 |
| FG% | 48 | 50 |
| 3PT | 13-24 | 10-22 |
| 3P% | 54 | 45 |
| FT | 23-27 | 25-38 |
| FT% | 85 | 66 |
| REB | 28 | 30 |
| OR | 7 | 8 |
| DR | 21 | 22 |
| AST | 19 | 11 |
| STL | 4 | 8 |
| BLK | 2 | 3 |
| TO | 13 | 8 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 21 |
| FBPs | 13 | 11 |
| PIP | 24 | 30 |
| PF | 26 | 23 |
| LL | 10 | 6 |
| LC | 9 | 9 |
| LPCT | 78 | 14 |
At lock VCU 80.27–78.66 MEM · VCU by 1.6 pts vs MEM +2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitL. Djokovic · VCU
29 MIN · 8 PTST. Weeks · MEM
28 MIN · 17 PTSJayden Reid · MEM
STAT · 35 MIN · 32 PTS · 11-21 FG · 3-9 3PTBlake Harper · VCU
STAT · 36 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-14 FG · 5-9 3PTAhmad Nowell · VCU
STAT · 22 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-10 FG · 3-5 3PTRihards Vavers · MEM
STAT · 34 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-8 FG · 4-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
VCU vs Memphis pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MEM +2.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day