East Tennessee State Buccaneers at NC State Wolfpack
Final · ACCNX
63–77Last shot · Tyran Mason makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected ETSU 68.90–83.95 NCSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3885640838
- Winner: NC State (90%)
- Spread: ETSU +16.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 152.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ETSU 68.90–83.95 NCSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseNCSU +21.2 off · ETSU +6.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to NCSU
- RecordNCSU 2-0 · ETSU 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward NCSU -17.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETSU | 36 | 27 | 63 |
| NCSU | 35 | 42 | 77 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2058–66
Eemeli Yalaho makes 6-foot hook shot (Kyle Evans assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:5859–66
Trevor Hennig makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4459–69
Paul McNeil Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Preston Edmead assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:4459–70
Paul McNeil Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 3:1959–71
Kyle Evans makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1959–72
Kyle Evans makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4759–75
Preston Edmead makes 27-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3161–75
BJ Ward makes 7-foot pullup jump shot
- FT2nd Half 1:1761–76
Preston Edmead makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1761–77
Preston Edmead makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3062–77
Tyran Mason makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3063–77
Tyran Mason makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ETSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Marion F · #11 | 32 | 12 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 K. Campbell F · #8 | 18 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Cooper G · #1 | 33 | 11 | 4-11 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Mason G · #7 | 27 | 14 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 BJ Ward G · #0 | 32 | 11 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 E. Smith F · #15 | 13 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Busse G · #4 | 15 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 T. Hennig G · #6 | 24 | 10 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
 M. Johnson G · #2 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 J. McCullum F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Crump F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Maller G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Payne G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Huff G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 63 | 24-48 | 8-24 | 7-10 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ETSU | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-48 | 26-58 |
| FG% | 50 | 45 |
| 3PT | 8-24 | 13-33 |
| 3P% | 33 | 39 |
| FT | 7-10 | 12-12 |
| FT% | 70 | 100 |
| REB | 25 | 33 |
| OR | 5 | 12 |
| DR | 20 | 21 |
| AST | 11 | 19 |
| STL | 6 | 7 |
| BLK | 4 | 3 |
| TO | 14 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 14 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 24 |
| FBPs | 4 | 6 |
| PIP | 26 | 26 |
| PF | 17 | 10 |
| LL | 10 | 16 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 48 | 43 |
At lock ETSU 68.90–83.95 NCSU · NCSU by 15.0 pts vs ETSU +16.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Marion · ETSU
32 MIN · 12 PTSK. Evans · NCSU
24 MIN · 8 PTSPreston Edmead · NCSU
STAT · 38 MIN · 20 PTS · 5-10 FG · 3-7 3PTPaul McNeil Jr. · NCSU
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-14 FG · 5-13 3PTTyran Mason · ETSU
STAT · 27 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-9 FG · 2-5 3PTChristian Hammond · NCSU
STAT · 31 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-11 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
ETSU vs NC State pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ETSU +16.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day